The Tropics are Staying Busy but no Concerns at this Time

September 14, 2021

Forecasting is hard...I really thought Nicholas had a chance of going a bit more to the east... The tropics are staying busy but there are no immediate concerns for the Gulf Coast now that Nicholas has made landfall. That's the main thing I have to say today so if you want to stop here you're good.

High rainfall amounts will continue to be a concern from Nicholas but the bulk of that looks to stay to our west. Total rain through Sunday morning is below.

Looking at the tropics the other main areas of interest are still present. There's still a medium chance the East Coast could see a storm of some kind later this week but I don't think there will be major impacts. 

The main thing to watch is the tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L just off the African coast. Short term chances for development are high but the long term forecast is uncertain. Environmental conditions may be such that the storm either never gets fully going or falls apart later in the week if it does develop a bit. You can see this reflected in the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble plots below, notice most of the colors are cool, meaning lower intensity. Notice also that the warmer, stronger tracks show the storm going more to the north. I think it is a low chance at this point for this to be a threat to the Gulf but the islands and the East Coast need to pay attention. It may be something to watch a week from now if it does develop and stays to the south.

ECMWF Ensemble

GEFS Ensemble

Other Spaghetti Models

That's about it for today. On Friday another wave will come off the African coast but I don't think it will be a threat at this time. We are in the time of year when things can pop up suddenly that aren't showing in the models so keep that in mind. Even though we're looking pretty good right now I'd expect to see a few more areas of interest show up on the 5-Day Outlook over the next few weeks.

Have a good week.

Chris