September 12, 2021
Well that didn't take long...official forecast below.
A hurricane hunter recently found conditions supporting tropical storm strength. Here's what the NHC has to say regarding intensity:
The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus,
and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment
and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner.
and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment
and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner.
My previous thoughts still apply, we'll see what happens.
Chris
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