Deep South Weather: Tropical Weather Update

October 16, 2021

All you really need to know for today is on the map below...

I don't think there will be too many complaints about that. That being said, there continue to be model signals that tropical development may occur from midweek through the end of next week. The GEFS (GFS ensemble) has been consistent in that a few of its members continue to show tropical development in the western Caribbean around the 20th. Speaking just about the 20th the Euro ensemble doesn't show anything at all, the Canadian ensemble has a few members developing, and none of the major operational models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) show any development. There's a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean and I think a few of the GEFS and Canadian members stall it near the Yucatan Channel and allow it to develop. That said, we're talking about a few members out of over a hundred between the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS (Canadian ensemble). I'm only mentioning it because it has been a consistent signal but I think the probability of something happening is 5-10% or so.

Taking a look farther out and at the Global Tropical Hazards map below the better chance for development may be in the central to western Caribbean from next weekend through the following week. I'll give this a little more credibility because it's actually showing up on an outlook map but it also seems like we just keep kicking the can down the road every week without anything happening. I think what all of this is telling us is that the ingredients for development aren't quite all together but they've been close from time to time. The good news is that the window for development this season is starting to shut. I'm going out on a limb a little bit but I think if we don't see anything develop by the end of the month we're probably done for the year.

Up here in the mid-latitudes the cold front I mentioned last time is almost through the coastal areas this morning as you can see on the first map below (temps as of 9 a.m.). I was wrong about how cool it will get as it looks like we'll see some upper 40's almost to the FL/AL line and mid to low 40's from Birmingham north for a few nights. Temps will warm with the start of the work week. Expect nice weather through Wednesday morning with rain chances returning midweek through Friday with the arrival of another front. Even so, rainfall totals look to be fairly low across the whole southeast. We'll see some cooler air again with this next front but I'm not going to speculate how low just yet...(maybe a little cooler, we'll see).

9 a.m. Temps (10/16)