Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for AL and TN Tomorrow, Severe Weather Also Possible Today and Sunday

December 31, 2021

There are a lot of details to cover with severe weather possible from today through Sunday for various parts of the region. I'll do my best to capture the big picture but it's best for you all to get the latest info from your local weather sources.

For today through Saturday morning northern AL and middle to eastern TN have a marginal risk for severe weather with all modes (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) possible, albeit at low probabilities. For northern AL any storms that can get going today have the potential to be severe so watch for anything that develops in the afternoon. While some of this development could occur in middle TN the greater threat there seems to be from storms that start to develop in the evening and overnight hours as tomorrow's system approaches from the west.

For Saturday through Sunday morning the SPC has placed northern AL and middle to eastern TN in an enhanced risk area for severe weather with surrounding areas in slight and marginal risk areas towards the coast as shown. A 10% chance of significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) and a 15% damaging wind risk are the main threats in the enhanced region although hail is possible as well. The regional four-panel image doesn't show the significant severe hatching so I've also included SPC's graphic. Scattered storms will move in from the west in late morning or early afternoon with a squall line following in the evening and overnight hours. Severe storms may occur both ahead of the squall line during the afternoon and evening and along the squall line later. The simulated radar image shows this progression from Saturday morning through midnight Sunday but note that the actual weather is likely to vary from this, hopefully we'll have better confidence tomorrow. I've also included graphics from the local weather service offices for more detail.

Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Showing the Location of the Significant Tornado Threat

ECMWF Simulated Radar (actual weather will be different)

Birmingham NWS Graphic

Huntsville NWS Graphic

Morristown NWS Graphics 

Saturday's weather will start approaching the coast early Sunday morning. We'll get more details tomorrow but it's possible we could have a few damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado or two as storms sweep through. It is possible that some northern areas may see some winter precip on the back side of the front Sunday night but regardless all of us will see a significant cool down and the coldest weather of the season so far.

Yep, maybe some frozen precip!

Again lots of details, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and for those in the enhanced area tomorrow that you have a shelter plan to include helmets if at all possible. The local weather sources will cover this in real-time so they're your best source once the weather gets close.

I wish you all an enjoyable New Year's Eve tonight! Stay safe.

Chris

Multiple Days of Severe Weather Possible Starting Today

December 29, 2021

Today starts a busy period with severe weather possible through Saturday or maybe Sunday. For today the SPC has added an enhanced (orange) risk area for northern AL and southern middle TN. This area coincides with a 10% chance of a tornado and is surrounded by a slight (yellow) risk area stretching into middle and southwestern AL and eastern TN. This area coincides with a 5% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. A hail risk extends throughout both areas. A marginal (dark green) risk area extends over the rest of AL and includes the FL Panhandle from the AL state line east to just about Panama City. Damaging winds (5% chance) is the main risk but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out away from the coast. For those near the edges of the enhanced risk area, be mindful that the area of worst weather may extend beyond this boundary a bit. Timing varies by region with locations in northwestern AL seeing severe weather initiate this afternoon with the threat moving to the south-southeast into the overnight and early morning hours. An exception is in the AL and western FL Panhandle which could see some stronger storms as early as this morning. Graphics for individual regions are provided to help with timing.

SPC Day 1 Four Panel

Northern AL

Eastern TN

Central AL

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Emerald Coast

Tomorrow

The severe threat continues tomorrow in the southeastern part of the region with a marginal risk coinciding with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% damaging wind and hail chances. Towards the coast storms look to be more scattered but in middle AL they may be associated with a narrow squall line that may persist from the afternoon through the evening.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A marginal risk area is indicated for Day 3 (Friday) across northern AL and Eastern TN with a slight risk area creeping in from the northwest. Timing looks to be afternoon and evening but we'll see as the event gets closer. It's also possible we see an enhanced risk area added, but I think that would be to the northwest of our region, however this could be accompanied by a south-eastward expansion of the slight risk area.

A 15% chance of severe weather still exists for Saturday for much of the region. We'll know more in the next few days but it is possible that this event will bring the greatest severe weather threat this week. I think we'll see at least an enhanced risk area in the middle of this zone by the time we get into the day 1 or 2 outlooks if not tomorrow with the day 3 outlook. The worst weather may be during the day on Saturday with the threat moving southeast overnight into Sunday with perhaps a marginal risk near the coast on Sunday.

With multi-day events like this take it one day at a time and listen to your local weather forecasters. It's a good time to make sure you have multiple ways of getting alerts and think about where you will be each day when the worst weather is expected. During the last event near me my radio never alarmed for some reason but several apps on my phone did. 

That's it for today. If the risk for tomorrow stays at the marginal level I may not send out another update until Thursday.

Have a good day.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible in AL & TN Wednesday & Saturday

December 27, 2021

Merry Christmas! I hope everyone is enjoying the holidays. After having some pretty nice albeit not winter-like weather for the holidays a more active period is in store. Over the next week a few different systems will move through the region with each bringing the possibility of severe weather for northern areas of the region. The first system will move in Wednesday afternoon and may linger into the evening. Right now there's some uncertainty with the tornado threat, but we may see the risk level increased to enhanced over the next few days if confidence increases. I think* the worst threat will be a little west of the region but we'll see. Expect a damaging wind threat as well.

The threat returns on Saturday ahead of another frontal system. Details on this system's track and strength are still uncertain so we should see several adjustments to this forecast prior to the weekend. Timing and risk level is undetermined at this point but the risk could be relatively high if we see a strong-ish system track far enough to the south.

More to come on both of these, for now just know that severe weather is possible mid week and over the weekend.

Warm weather (for this time of year) will continue through the end of the year but beyond that we might see a return to normal temps (i.e. cooler) as we get beyond New Year's Day.

That's it for today. Unless there's a big change for Wednesday's forecast I'll probably wait until Wednesday morning to send the next update.

Have a great week.

Chris

Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Today From Montgomery to the Coast

December 18, 2021

The SPC has issued a marginal risk of severe weather for an area just south of Birmingham through the AL and FL Panhandles east to Tallahassee. Damaging winds are the main risk but an isolated tornado or two, from about Panama City west and up through Lower AL, can't be ruled out. The severe weather threat will be from now (late morning) through the afternoon although rain will linger through early morning as a cold front clears the area. Expect some coastal weather to return on Monday.

That's it for today, have a great Saturday.

Chris

Slight Chance of Severe Weather Today for Central-Northern AL and Middle-Eastern TN

December 11, 2021

Severe weather is ongoing this morning in northern Mississippi, northwestern AL, and middle Tennessee and Kentucky after a historic night of tornadoes west and northwest of our region. The SPC has increased the severe weather risk to slight (yellow) for central-northern AL and middle to eastern TN. Other details I mentioned yesterday are about the same. The worst of the weather will occur this morning with the threat dimensioning this afternoon as the weather moves east-southeast.

 

Thankfully this will not be as bad for us as it was for the folks last night, there are reports of devastating damage coming out of Kentucky and other areas in the region.

Stay safe and have a good day.

Chris

Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Tonight Into Tomorrow

December 10, 2021

Only 14 shopping days left for Christmas! Not on anyone's shopping list, severe weather is in the forecast starting early Saturday morning sweeping east-southeast through the afternoon. The SPC has placed northwestern AL and central TN in marginal and slight risk areas for day 1 (which ends at 6 a.m. tomorrow morning), with a marginal risk area extending through the rest of AL, eastern TN, and the western most FL Panhandle on day 2. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds are the main threats, perhaps some hail also.

Today through 6 a.m. Tomorrow

Starting at 6 a.m. Saturday

This weather is associated with a warm front that will lift north prior to a cold front sweeping through. The worst weather will be overnight on Friday night/early Saturday to the west-northwest of our region, but some of the threat will remain on Saturday as the system makes it to our area in the early morning hours. For our area most of the severe threat will be associated with squall line storms right along the cold front but some isolated storms ahead of the front could be severe as well.

Frontal Passage

Simulated Radar (timing and coverage will vary)

The enhanced and slight risk areas on day 1 just creep into AL but everyone on this email should be outside of that unless you're traveling. The risk is lower on day 2 and the threat looks to subside around mid afternoon so locations in southeast AL and the rest of the FL Panhandle should experience typical non-severe cold front thunderstorms. That being said, situations like this can change so be aware of the weather in your area. As an example, we had a potential tornado try to spin up over our house just after midnight on Tuesday. I don't think it was ever on the ground but there were lots of limbs down, Christmas decorations knocked over, and a few trees down in the area. Probably the strongest thunderstorm winds we've experienced in our 8 years here. Severe weather was not expected at all.

Radar Late Tuesday Night. My house is the "+" south of Portland. Green and red close together in the upper right and lower left indicate rotation, the lower right is a rotation product. A tornado warning extending to the northeast was issued right after it passed over.

That's it for today. Stay safe and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. On Tuesday night our weather radio didn't alarm for some reason (happened to a neighbor also) but our phones did.

Have a good Friday and a great weekend.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today in AL, Central TN, and the Extreme Western FL Panhandle

December 6, 2021

The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a slight to marginal risk of severe weather for Alabama, the extreme western Florida Panhandle, and east-central Tennessee. Damaging winds are the main risk but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out for central to northern AL and east-central TN. Stormy weather is currently ongoing along a cold front in northeast AL and central TN. Expect this to move to the east-southeast throughout the day with the severe threat ending around mid to late afternoon.

Expect the weather to remain unsettled and active the rest of the week through at least early Sunday morning. Today's front will stall near the coast and remain over the southeast the rest of week, perhaps moving back north a little and then south a few times. On Saturday morning another cold front will enter the region from the northeast and finally push this mess out of here on Sunday. Seven day rainfall totals are below.

That's it for today. The severe weather threat for today isn't a major concern but something to be aware of. Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris

Hurricane Season Comes to a Close

December 1, 2021

Hurricane season for this year is officially over. Despite relatively low activity in October and November, which was not expected, this season was still the 3rd most active on record, exhausting all of the names on the list.

Up here in the mid-latitudes the weather has been pretty benign, other than being a bit chilly. Today is also the first day of meteorological winter (yay). With things being pretty quiet I took the opportunity to take a break for a little and there wasn't much to report anyways. Looking towards the future there's not much in the way of high impact weather in store. 

It will be mostly dry through the weekend with rain moving into the southeast late Monday persisting through midweek or later. You can see the climate outlooks for the next few weeks below. Temps will be warmer than average with some decent prep in the short term and precip getting back close to normal for week two.

Week 1 Temp Outlook

Week 1 Precip Outlook

Week 2 Temp Outlook

Week 2 Precip Outlook 

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Nina phase (again). Below is the expected pattern for winter (typically), although variations can occur.

That's it for now. This time of year can bring some severe weather so that is something to be aware of although it has been a fairly quiet fall severe weather season so far.

Chris