Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for AL and TN Tomorrow, Severe Weather Also Possible Today and Sunday

December 31, 2021

There are a lot of details to cover with severe weather possible from today through Sunday for various parts of the region. I'll do my best to capture the big picture but it's best for you all to get the latest info from your local weather sources.

For today through Saturday morning northern AL and middle to eastern TN have a marginal risk for severe weather with all modes (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) possible, albeit at low probabilities. For northern AL any storms that can get going today have the potential to be severe so watch for anything that develops in the afternoon. While some of this development could occur in middle TN the greater threat there seems to be from storms that start to develop in the evening and overnight hours as tomorrow's system approaches from the west.

For Saturday through Sunday morning the SPC has placed northern AL and middle to eastern TN in an enhanced risk area for severe weather with surrounding areas in slight and marginal risk areas towards the coast as shown. A 10% chance of significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) and a 15% damaging wind risk are the main threats in the enhanced region although hail is possible as well. The regional four-panel image doesn't show the significant severe hatching so I've also included SPC's graphic. Scattered storms will move in from the west in late morning or early afternoon with a squall line following in the evening and overnight hours. Severe storms may occur both ahead of the squall line during the afternoon and evening and along the squall line later. The simulated radar image shows this progression from Saturday morning through midnight Sunday but note that the actual weather is likely to vary from this, hopefully we'll have better confidence tomorrow. I've also included graphics from the local weather service offices for more detail.

Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Showing the Location of the Significant Tornado Threat

ECMWF Simulated Radar (actual weather will be different)

Birmingham NWS Graphic

Huntsville NWS Graphic

Morristown NWS Graphics 

Saturday's weather will start approaching the coast early Sunday morning. We'll get more details tomorrow but it's possible we could have a few damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado or two as storms sweep through. It is possible that some northern areas may see some winter precip on the back side of the front Sunday night but regardless all of us will see a significant cool down and the coldest weather of the season so far.

Yep, maybe some frozen precip!

Again lots of details, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and for those in the enhanced area tomorrow that you have a shelter plan to include helmets if at all possible. The local weather sources will cover this in real-time so they're your best source once the weather gets close.

I wish you all an enjoyable New Year's Eve tonight! Stay safe.

Chris