December 29, 2021
Today starts a busy period with severe weather possible through Saturday or maybe Sunday. For today the SPC has added an enhanced (orange) risk area for northern AL and southern middle TN. This area coincides with a 10% chance of a tornado and is surrounded by a slight (yellow) risk area stretching into middle and southwestern AL and eastern TN. This area coincides with a 5% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. A hail risk extends throughout both areas. A marginal (dark green) risk area extends over the rest of AL and includes the FL Panhandle from the AL state line east to just about Panama City. Damaging winds (5% chance) is the main risk but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out away from the coast. For those near the edges of the enhanced risk area, be mindful that the area of worst weather may extend beyond this boundary a bit. Timing varies by region with locations in northwestern AL seeing severe weather initiate this afternoon with the threat moving to the south-southeast into the overnight and early morning hours. An exception is in the AL and western FL Panhandle which could see some stronger storms as early as this morning. Graphics for individual regions are provided to help with timing.
SPC Day 1 Four Panel
Northern AL
Eastern TN
Central AL
Mobile-Pensacola Area
Emerald Coast
Tomorrow
The severe threat continues tomorrow in the southeastern part of the region with a marginal risk coinciding with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% damaging wind and hail chances. Towards the coast storms look to be more scattered but in middle AL they may be associated with a narrow squall line that may persist from the afternoon through the evening.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
A marginal risk area is indicated for Day 3 (Friday) across northern AL and Eastern TN with a slight risk area creeping in from the northwest. Timing looks to be afternoon and evening but we'll see as the event gets closer. It's also possible we see an enhanced risk area added, but I think that would be to the northwest of our region, however this could be accompanied by a south-eastward expansion of the slight risk area.
A 15% chance of severe weather still exists for Saturday for much of the region. We'll know more in the next few days but it is possible that this event will bring the greatest severe weather threat this week. I think we'll see at least an enhanced risk area in the middle of this zone by the time we get into the day 1 or 2 outlooks if not tomorrow with the day 3 outlook. The worst weather may be during the day on Saturday with the threat moving southeast overnight into Sunday with perhaps a marginal risk near the coast on Sunday.
With multi-day events like this take it one day at a time and listen to your local weather forecasters. It's a good time to make sure you have multiple ways of getting alerts and think about where you will be each day when the worst weather is expected. During the last event near me my radio never alarmed for some reason but several apps on my phone did.
That's it for today. If the risk for tomorrow stays at the marginal level I may not send out another update until Thursday.
Have a good day.
Chris
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