Severe Weather Still on Tap for Today and Tomorrow

January 1, 2022

Happy New Year to you all! Hopefully the potential for severe weather today isn't a harbinger for things to come...

Not too much has changed for today with the forecast since yesterday. There is still a 10% chance of tornadoes in northern AL and middle to eastern TN with significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) possible. The 30% damaging wind (I mistakenly said 15% yesterday...) and 15% hail risk remains as well. The enhanced risk area has shrunk a little and is now just north of the Birmingham metro area, although it should be noted that these boundaries, like any forecast, aren't perfect. You can see the extent of the slight and marginal risk areas along with the risk of each severe weather mode below. Severe storms are still possible both ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening and along the front later with the chance for pre-frontal storms now looking to be a little lower. This is good news because the prefrontal severe storms will have the potential to be the worst, especially with regards to stronger tornadoes. Graphics for each region have been included again to help with timing.

Day-1 Outlook

NWS Birmingham

NWS Huntsville

NWS Morristown

NWS Mobile

NWS Tallahassee

Not much has changed for tomorrow either along the coast with the SPC still indicating a marginal chance of severe weather. It could be that the greatest risk will occur later in the day as the sun does its work and provides heating but I think most of the weather may be moving east out of the area by then.

Day-2 Outlook

NWS Tallahassee

Unless the severe weather threat today or tomorrow changes significantly this will be the last update from me on this event. The weather will clear out and cool down quite a bit on Sunday. After that our next chance of rain looks to be Wednesday into Thursday, severe weather doesn't look very likely at this time.

Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Chris