March 21, 2022
Tomorrow will bring our third round of severe weather into the area. The worst of it will be to our west but we may still see some impacts. For tomorrow the Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. tomorrow through 7 a.m. Wednesday) has most of western AL and the western FL Panhandle in a slight risk area. There is an enhanced risk area in western-most AL but I don't think anyone on this list will be impacted by that. In the slight risk area there is a 5% tornado chance, a 15% damaging wind chance, and a 5-15% chance of hail. A marginal risk area extends to the east and north through the central FL Panhandle and most of the rest of AL. This area has a 2% chance of a tornado, a 5% damaging wind chance, and a 5% or less chance of hail. Isolated storms will start developing late tomorrow morning near the coast to the west in the AL Panhandle area and will work their way north and east. These storms will persist into the mid-evening and the best chance of a tornado will be in one of these cells. In the mid afternoon a squall line will move into the area from the west and will sweep through the central FL Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Some storms that possibly may be severe will linger behind the front near the coast into the afternoon or early evening Wednesday with perhaps steady rain following through early Thursday. The Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday) has all of the FL Panhandle and SE AL in a slight risk area for severe weather and we may see the risk increase a bit. Showers may persist through Thursday morning in the Panama City area but the severe threat should end on Wednesday.
Simulated radar from noon tomorrow through noon Wednesday is included to give you a rough idea on timing. As always these products are subject to error.
The Tallahassee NWS office didn't have a special graphic out yet but what they're saying regarding timing is included in my discussion above and as shown in the model radar.
Tomorrow through Wednesday morning
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning (again I think the threat will end later on Wednesday)
Mobile-Pensacola Area
Birmingham-Montgomery
Simulated Radar (12 p.m. Tuesday - 12 p.m. Wednesday, doesn't show the whole event)
We could see some strong storms overnight so make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts that will wake you up. Depending on what the setup looks like on Wednesday I may send another email tomorrow evening to update you on that, otherwise stay safe.
Below is the storm report map for last Friday March 18th. As you can see the weather was quite active in the FL Panhandle although not so much where the enhanced area was. Also there were only a few severe reports up in AL away from the coast and none in TN so that part of the forecast didn't verify.
That's it for today. Once this system moves through the weather looks fairly quiet through the start of next week.
Chris
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