Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow Through Early Saturday

March 17, 2022

As expected, severe weather is forecast for tomorrow (although a bit earlier than I originally thought), perhaps persisting through Saturday morning. For Friday the SPC has issued an enhanced risk for severe weather for an area near the coast from Mobile east through Walton County and a bit farther east away from the coast. There is a 10% chance of significant tornadoes in this area (EF2 or stronger, some could be long-tracked) and a 15% chance of damaging winds. Farther east through the FL Panhandle and north through AL and middle TN is an area of slight risk corresponding to a 5% tornado and 15% damaging wind risk. There is a 15% chance of hail in both of these areas as well. There is also a marginal risk area extending into eastern TN corresponding with a 2% tornado and 5% damaging wind risk. Timing is morning through mid-afternoon or evening, with effects lasting later to the east, see the regional graphics for details.

Mobile Area

Panama City Area

Birmingham

Huntsville

The threat will continue albeit to a lesser extent Saturday morning through the central FL Panhandle and southeast AL. I think this weather will move east out of the area by mid-morning or noon at the latest. An isolated tornado or two and damaging winds will be the main threats.

We're still looking at another system coming into the area Tuesday with impacts Tuesday and Wednesday, more details to come early next week.

Tuesday's (March 15th) severe weather forecast was a bust with no severe impacts reported, although calling a marginal risk a bust is probably a bit harsh.

I wanted to get an email out this evening since the event will be ongoing tomorrow morning. If the details change I'll let you know.

Have a good weekend.

Chris