Deep South Weather: Update on Tomorrow's Severe Weather Forecast, Winter WX Also Likely

March 10, 2022

I'm sending this out a little early because it looks like there will be two rounds of severe weather tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center is now forecasting a moderate risk of severe weather from the Panama City area east through the Big Bend and extending into SW Georgia. A larger surrounding area extending from the AL/MS line east to Jacksonville, FL and up through east-southeast AL and into South Carolina is in a slight risk area with a marginal risk area beyond that. In the moderate risk area there is a 10% chance of a tornado and 30% chance of damaging winds. In the slight risk area there is a 2-5% chance of a tornado (higher closer to the moderate area) and a 15% chance of damaging winds.

The timing information seems a bit inconsistent so I'd say there's some uncertainty. It looks like storms will start moving in off the Gulf after midnight tonight and spread inland throughout the afternoon and early evening. During the late evening to overnight and Saturday morning hours a cold front moves through bringing with it a second round of storms. Severe parameters will increase throughout the day with the highest severe threat occurring more with the second round than the first sometime between midnight Friday and Saturday morning. I don't think the animation below is accurate but it'll give you some idea how this will evolve.

Here are some graphics from the NWS offices providing a bit more info.

Tallahassee

Mobile

Birmingham

Temps turn cold after the front passes! We're looking at the mid to upper 20's nearly all the way to the coast now Saturday night with lows in the lower 20's and even mid teens in AL and TN. Before the cold sets in there is the possibility of some winter weather from the Birmingham area north, details below, there are some winter weather watches and advisories for these areas. Thankfully temps will warm back up quickly into next week.

Birmingham