March 15, 2022
Showers are moving off the Gulf this morning and a few may become severe this afternoon and evening. The Storm prediction Center has placed the coastal areas of AL and FL in a marginal risk area that corresponds with a 2% tornado chance and 5% damaging wind chance. Not a high risk overall but listen for watches and warnings in case severe storms occur in your area.
This current round of weather will move out of the area on Wednesday only to be followed by another system late Thursday or early Friday. We'll get another chance for severe weather not only along the coast again but a bit more inland as well. I think timing will be later in the day on Friday, maybe into the early hours Saturday but we'll see. All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, tornados, and hail) will be possible. We'll have more details in a few days.
Looking out a week from now we'll see a third round of severe weather. It's not too common for there to be enough confidence a week out that severe weather is going to occur so we need to watch this event more closely. It's too far away to talk much about details but tornadoes and damaging winds look possible with this third system. I would expect we'll see another risk area show up a bit more to the east for Wednesday into Thursday morning once the forecast period gets closer.
I don't have time to talk much about it but the last round of severe weather that was forecast for the 11th was a bit of a bust. No complaints that we didn't see a lot of bad weather but the forecast didn't verify well. The forecast for last Tuesday/Wednesday (the 8th and 9th) did verify with several tornadoes occuring in the FL Panhandle and southern AL.
That's it for today. Not a major threat today but be aware of changing weather and have a plan. We'll talk more about the next two systems once we have more details.
Have a good week.
Chris
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