June 1, 2022
Today is the first day of hurricane season. For the first time in seven years we did not have a named storm prior to the official start of the season. With the history lesson out of the way, we may see the first named storm of this season develop in the next few days. The NHC is watching Invest 91L in the western Caribbean. As predicted this formed out of the remnants of Agatha and was well forecast by the models. Invest 91L has a 70% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 80% chance over 5 days. We'll likely see it become a tropical depression and then possibly Tropical Storm Alex if it can get its act together. As of now it doesn't look like it will strengthen much above minimal tropical storm strength. The most likely track takes the storm as a messy rainy and windy system across South Florida Friday or Saturday. I've included a model plot to give you an idea of the track, just keep in mind this does not represent every possible solution.
That's it for today. You'll notice there is a yellow area of interest off the east coast of Florida, that is nothing to be concerned about. Unless something changes considerably this will be my last update on this storm. Last time I mentioned that there were some model signals showing additional development next week. As of now that signal has disappeared.
Have a good rest of the week.
Chris
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