Tropical Weather Update

June 12, 2022

It's been a little while since there was something to talk about in the tropics, definitely not a bad thing. The NHC is expecting an area of low pressure to form in the western Caribbean sometime later this week, currently they give this system a 20% chance of development over 5 days. At this point it looks unlikely that this will affect the northern Gulf and that's all you need to know for now. For more details keep readings.

The GFS has been showing development in this area for several days now but since the Euro was showing nothing until yesterday I thought I'd wait to send an update. At this point it's still a tale of two models. The GFS develops a fairly strong storm off of Central America Wednesday or Thursday that makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday. The storm, now weaker, then crosses the Bay of Campeche making landfall again in Mexico around next Tuesday. The Euro develops a much weaker system off of Central America on Wednesday or Thursday that then makes landfall in Nicaragua on Friday before dissipating. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles generally support their respective operational models. The Canadian model is a bit in-between. Like the Euro it develops a weaker system but with a more northern track similar to the GFS. Given the variation in the models and the fact that the NHC is only expecting gradual development it seems like the GFS is overdoing the strength of this system (which I think is also a bias of the GFS). Either way a track up our way looks unlikely. We have climatology on our side also as it is typical for early season storms to track more towards Texas. That being said it is something to keep an eye on.

That's it for today, have a good week. Nothing to be concerned about at this point, just know something might develop. I'll send out another update around the middle or end of the week.

Chris