Two Areas to Watch in the Tropics

August 28, 2022

Activity is picking up in the tropics and there are a few areas I want to update you on this morning. Below is the 5-Day Outlook from the National Hurricane Center and you'll see that they're watching four different areas. Today we're only going to talk about two of them for the most part.

First up is the area in the western Caribbean which the NHC gives a 20% chance of development. The short story is that I don't think this is going to bother us in the northern Gulf, that is if it develops at all. The operational GFS model has been consistent in developing this system but for the most part it stands alone in doing so. The GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows a fairly strong signal for development as well but the Euro and Canadian operational and ensemble models show little to none. As it is, it looks almost non-existent on satellite and I think the only reason the NHC continues to highlight it is the time of year and the continued support from the GFS. For what it's worth the GFS takes this system into the Texas/Mexico border area so even if it does manage to develop I don't think it's a concern for us.

Next is the red area in the central tropics. Designated Invest 91L, this low pressure area associated with a tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days. With that forecast I'd say there's a good chance we'll see this develop at some point later this week. You can see the spaghetti models below. Based on these I am hopeful it will stay out of the Gulf but it is a bit too early to say that. I think the longer it goes without developing the farther west it may come without starting to curve north. It's something to watch but nothing to be concerned about at this point.

Tropical Cyclone Spaghetti Models

GFS Ensemble

European Ensemble

There's another tropical wave being watched way out east but it's too early to spend a lot of time on it. The NHC gives this area a 20% chance of development over 5 days. It looks like this may curve into the Atlantic if it develops but we'll start watching it closer once these other areas are out of the picture.

So again a few areas to watch but I think there is a fairly low chance they will bother us much. I'm more interested in what happens with the low pressure approaching the Lesser Antilles so we need to wait and see how it evolves this week.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend and have a good week.

Chris