Tropical Weather Update - Lots of Activity but no Current Threats to the US

September 7, 2022

Activity in the tropics has picked up (finally?) but even so this will be a fairly short update. Looking at the 5 Day Outlook you can see there is quite a bit going on with two named storms and two other areas being watched. The good news is that these areas are not a threat to land with possibly one exception (and not counting Bermuda which Earl may impact). 

The one exception is the yellow 'x' on the African coast. This area is a tropical wave that is just emerging into the Atlantic. In about ten days time this wave will be approaching the Leeward Islands and then it will probably continue making its way across the northern Caribbean. The 06Z GFS run notwithstanding (which develops this too early in my opinion which causes it to recurve into the Atlantic) it looks like this wave will stay moist but in an otherwise somewhat hostile environment as it moves west. Ensemble models are split between developing it too early, which again I think is less likely, or not developing it at all so we'll have to watch how the trends evolve. So even though a forecast for a long term threat to the Caribbean or Gulf is not in the cards at this point, and would be unreliable if it was, a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean this time of year is something to watch especially if conditions become favorable two weeks from now. 

Along the northern Gulf a coastal low pressure may develop along a cold front that will push into the area later today and tonight. A few ensemble members from both the GFS and Euro hint at a chance for development but it looks like wind shear will be too strong for anything tropical to try and form. You may see some things about this on the internet but no development is expected. What you can expect is more rain along the coast (what else is new...) but the current forecast projects the highest amounts to the east in the Big Bend region. Looking through the weekend and into next week this pattern may stay in place with a series of coastal lows forming along frontal boundaries with continued rainy weather.

5 Day Rainfall

That's it for today. Nothing to be concerned about in the short term, but maybe something to watch down the road. Have a good week.

Chris