Tropics Go Back To Being Quiet

September 11, 2022

Yesterday was the climatological peak of hurricane season and as you can see below the tropics are oddly quiet. The only area being watched by the NHC is a wave that is going to push off of Africa on Monday. It has a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days but I don't think we have to be concerned about it.

The only other thing I want to mention is the tropical wave I spoke about last time. The wave I'm watching is the one south of the big 'H" half way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Other than a few ensemble members, models aren't showing any outright development. However, it does look like it will hold together somewhat as it continues west. By the end of the week it will be approaching the Windward Islands and it is at this point that a few ensembles start to develop it. Wind shear conditions from the Windward Islands through to the eastern Gulf don't look the best but anytime there's a wave moving through this area this time of year I think it's worth watching. I think it's a low probability that this will develop but I want to continue to watch it for the next 10 days or so.

The first cold front of the season will push through tomorrow and leave behind some cooler and drier air. Folks along the coast will not notice too much (we'll get a few nights in the mid to upper 60's) but northern AL and TN will have two or three nights in the mid to upper 50's with day time highs still fairly warm for all. The weather north of the coast looks dry through at least the end of week but along the coast expect rain chances to return by Thursday. That being said I think the weekend will be fairly nice with only a 30-40% chance of rain.

That's it for today, the tropics remain oddly inactive given what the seasonal forecasts were predicting. As a homeowner along the coast I have no complaints but it's confusing when so many forecasts fall flat. The season isn't over by any stretch but we're definitely not going to have the above average season that was predicted.

Have a good week.

Chris