Watching an Area in the Caribbean - Likely Not a Big Concern

October 26, 2022

The NHC's 5-Day Outlook started showing an area of interest in the Caribbean yesterday. As of this morning they give it a 30% chance of development through 5 days. While there's enough uncertainty to keep an eye on this I still don't think it'll be a concern for the Gulf. The one exception at this point is that it looks like there may be an opportunity for a storm in the western Caribbean to track northeast towards the southwestern Florida Peninsula. This is probably an outlier solution but is something to watch.

The GFS and Canadian operational models have been bonkers on this while the Euro and others have been relatively quiet. There is some ensemble support for development from the Euro and the GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing a strong signal (which is expected given what the operational models are showing). That being said there is no clear picture from the models on what might happen. I think the GFS and Canadian models are way overdoing the situation and I tend to side with the Euro on this which shows a really broad low pressure forming in the southern portion of the central to western Caribbean continuing to move west towards Central America from there. This time of year any storm heading north is going to have a hard time unless it finds a hole between the frontal systems that start to move through regularly.

It looks like the severe weather forecast for yesterday was a bit of a bust. So far there have only been two reports of severe weather. A major event wasn't in the forecast but all the same I'd like to see several more reports to say that the forecast verified. Severe weather events can be very difficult to forecast and the folks at the SPC do a great job keeping us safe.

I'll let you know if the situation changes in the Caribbean but for right now I wouldn't be concerned about it.

Enjoy the rest of the week. Expect more rain (if you got any yesterday...) on Saturday and Sunday. So far no severe weather is expected but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a marginal risk area show up for the coastal areas.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow - Maybe Some Activity in the Tropics to Watch

October 24, 2022

Fall severe weather season is here. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a moderate to slight risk of severe weather tomorrow for the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Tennessee. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all possible with their associated probabilities shown below. According to the current Day 2 Outlook the highest chance for severe storms looks to be in the western half of AL with the main tornado threat in a corridor west-southwest of Birmingham and north of Mobile. Based on the SPC's discussion it is possible that we'll see the slight area shift or expand to the east a bit with later updates. Expect isolated showers and storms moving in from the south-southwest from the morning hours through midday followed by a line of storms moving west to east ahead of a cold front with the main severe threat along the squall line. This line should clear northern AL by mid evening, central AL and Eastern TN a few hours later, and the Panama City area around midnight. The severe threat should diminish a bit as the storms move east later in the day.

Day 2 Outlook

Huntsville

Birmingham-Montgomery Area

Pensacola Area

Panama City Area

Turning to the tropics there are a few areas being watched in the Atlantic but the chances for development are low and I don't think they will be a threat to land.

Other than the above there are some model runs hinting at development in the Caribbean later this week through the beginning of November. There is enough of a signal that I do think there is some chance of development but right now impacts to the Gulf Coast seem unlikely. I'll let you know if there's something to be concerned about.

Back up here in the mid latitudes we're getting into the fall pattern of regular cold fronts moving through, after tomorrow expect another system around the weekend. It also looks like the cooler than normal weather is coming to end for maybe a few weeks with the 14 day forecast calling for above average temps.

That's it for today. If the severe weather threat changes significantly I'll let you know. It's been a little while since we've had severe weather so make sure you're keeping an eye out for changing weather conditions and that you have a plan should a warning be issued for your area.

Chris

Remnants of Julia May Try to Redevelop but no Concerns - Marginal Chance of Severe Weather in AL & TN

October 11, 2022

Hi everyone, I hope you're enjoying this great Fall weather. We usually get some nice days this time of year but an extended period of cool, dry weather is a bit rare. This evening through Thursday we'll finally get a shot at some rain, followed by mostly cool and dry weather through at least the start of next week. With the rain this week there is a marginal risk for severe weather for parts of northern AL and TN tomorrow afternoon through the evening and maybe overnight with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail possible.

Looking quickly at the tropics, the NHC is watching the Bay of Campeche to see if the remnants of Julia will redevelop (currently a 60% chance). This is likely to mainly be a rainmaker for Mexico, no concerns at all for the northern Gulf.

That's it for today, I expect the tropics to be fairly quiet for the next few weeks but given that the season doesn't end until December I'll keep watching.

Have a good week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Another Area to Watch in the Caribbean

October 2, 2022

The late-starting 2022 hurricane season continues. The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave that is making its way towards the Caribbean. This wave, shown in yellow, has a 20% chance of development over 2 days and a 30% chance of development over 5 days. The synopsis is that this is something to watch but right now it's not concerning, if you want more details read on (you can ignore the red area farther east).

So far models other than the Canadian aren't too bullish on development. The Euro doesn't develop this wave at all as it moves west across the Caribbean over the next week. The GFS tries to develop the wave east of the Leeward Islands before showing a weak storm fall apart quickly in the Caribbean with no redevelopment afterwards (depending on the run). The Canadian model also starts development east of the Leeward Island and brings a storm all the way across the Caribbean into Central America a week from now. Looking at the ensembles, only a few of the Euro ensembles (EPS) develop this wave and even those wait until the central or western Caribbean for that to start. Just a few of the GFS ensemble members (not counting a few members that show development east of the islands) show development in the central or western Caribbean, probably a few more than the Euro but not a very strong signal. The Canadian ensemble members on the other hand are showing a strong signal for development, but I don't think that is correct.

I think the Euro solution makes the most sense at least in the near term. I don't think this wave will develop east of the islands. It looks pretty healthy on satellite but I think wind shear from a system to its north will limit development. If it does develop I agree with the GFS in that it will be short lived and fall apart quickly in the eastern Caribbean (which is notably a hostile area for development, except in Ian's case). The Canadian model and ensembles seem way too aggressive. One reason I think this is because of the lack of support from the other models, and seldom is the Canadian correct when it comes to tropical cyclogenesis. I think it also may be underestimating the effect of wind shear through the islands and eastern Caribbean or it may just be a model bias. Either way, the idea of the wave waiting until the central or western Caribbean to develop matches climatology (what typically happens). Two other pieces of good news. One is that I'm not seeing many tracks that bring this system north. The second is that as of now the central and northern Gulf look to be quite hostile to any storm that may come that way. The bottom line is that while I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a tropical depression if not a stronger storm develop around a week from now I think an impact to the US looks like a low probably at this point.

Regarding Ian, I hope if any of you have friends or relatives that were impacted by that storm that they are safe and able to start the road to recovery. Some of you know just how long that can be. The name Ian will likely be retired and as a piece of trivia "I" named storms are the most retired out of all the letters.

Here in the southeast, the beautiful if not a bit warm and dry fall weather will continue for a while. It was nice to get a break from the rain but a shower or two would be nice. It doesn't look like our next chance will come again until maybe as late as the end of next week, but hopefully sooner.

Have a great week.

Chris