Severe Weather Possible Tonight for AL and TN, Tomorrow for FL and AL

 March 31, 2023

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a chance of severe weather for most of the area tonight into Saturday. Starting later today there is an Enhanced (orange) risk of severe weather for northwest Alabama including the Huntsville area and central Tennessee with Slight (yellow) and Marginal (dark green) risk areas extending to the east and southeast. The Enhanced risk area includes a 10% chance of tornadoes with EF2 or stronger tornadoes possible, a 5% hail risk, and a 30% chance of damaging winds, with winds stronger than 75 mph possible in the northwest corner of Alabama. The Slight risk area includes a 5% tornado risk, 5% hail risk, and 15% damaging wind risk. The Marginal risk area includes a 2% tornado risk, a 5% hail risk in part of the area, and a 5% damaging wind risk. Timing graphics are shown. Scattered showers are already ongoing in northern Alabama and will continue throughout the day. As a cold front moves into the area the severe risk ramps up in the late evening for northwest Alabama spreading east and southeast later in the evening and into the early morning hours tomorrow. A Marginal risk area for severe weather will remain into Saturday for southeast Alabama and a portion of the central Florida Panhandle away from the immediate coast. Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are the main risks.

Day 1 (valid 7 a.m. today through 7 a.m. Saturday morning)

Huntsville Area

Eastern TN

Birmingham-Montgomery

Day 2 (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday)

Tallahassee Area

Those of you located in the higher risk areas know the drill but be sure to have a plan in place and multiple ways of receiving alerts as the worst weather looks to be in the overnight hours. This frontal system should clear our area later Saturday leaving us with a nice Sunday before rainy weather returns for what may be most of the week for different parts of the Southeast.

I made a separate post again to debrief last week's severe weather event here if you're interested. The short version is that the forecast verified very well for all 5 days before the weather system finally moved out of the area last Tuesday.

That's it for today, If there are any significant changes for today or tomorrow I'll let you know.

Have a good weekend,

Chris