Late March 2023 Southeast Multi-Day Severe Weather Event

March 31, 2023

I am again doing this debrief from the last severe weather event as a linked post so as to not clutter up my latest severe weather post. This event last 5 days and my post only covered the first two days for a few reasons. The first reason I didn't post again for the 26th onward was because we were on a vacation that ended the 26th. The second and the main reason I didn't post anymore for this event was because either none of my audience was located in the risk area (as on the 26th) or the risks were generally low (as with the 27th and 28th).

March 24

The 24th was a very busy severe weather day and I'm sure you're all aware of the deadly tornadoes that occurred in Mississippi. I have included verification maps for the morning forecast and the evening forecast so you can see how the risk area expanded later on. Overall it looks like the forecast captured the event quite well and the SPC expanded the higher risk areas to the northeast as a favorable environment moved in that direction.

March 25

The severe risk from the 24th continued into the next day as the same storm systems moved east-southeast. The risk started out as Marginal and then increased to Slight as the day progressed. Both forecasts capture the events of the day well.

March 26

On the 26th (Sunday), the front stalled across the Southeast as was predicted. As you can see below in the forecast progression from Day 3 (top) through Day 1 (bottom) this event was very well forecast (as was the March 24th event, I just don't show the progression above). I didn't post or email about this day because I don't know anyone that lives in the narrow strip where the severe weather risk was located. I probably should have but we were busy packing and checking out of our rental on the last day of vacation.

March 27

For the 27th and 28th the severe weather risk continued along the same stalled front but to a lesser degree. As stated above I didn't post or email for these days because the risk was generally low and I don't think any of my readers are located in the highest risk area, particularly for the 27th.

March 28

Overall this entire muti-day event was well forecast. If you're interested I found a very good technical analysis on Twitter that explained the difference between this event and others we've had this year that didn't quite pan out. It did a great job explaining the complexities of the forecast process and how not all of the ingredients needed for severe weather occur or don't occur at the right time in conjunction with the others.

Thanks for reading.

Chris