April 29, 2023
We had nice weather yesterday after the storms on Thursday but today the storms return along with the chance for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight risk of severe weather for the Panama City area eastward with a Marginal risk area to the west and northwest to about Montgomery, AL. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 5% chance of hail, and a 15% chance of damaging winds. In the Marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of a tornado nearer to the coast and a 5% chance of hail and damaging winds over the whole area. The forecast today is complex and multiple rounds of storms are expect across the FL Panhandle/near coastal region. The first round is developing offshore now and will push in off the Gulf later this morning, first into the western Panhandle and then a bit later farther east. A second round is expected in the evening through the overnight hours west to east, with there being less certainty on the severe threat for these storms. It looks like the weather should be clear of the area by daybreak tomorrow.
Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Sunday)
Central Panhandle Area
Montgomery Area
After the storms and rain today and tonight the weather looks to stay nice with cool nights and warm days this week with maybe a chance of rain around the end of the week.
Below is the verification graphic for the severe weather on Thursday. I think the forecast did well and there were actually a few more tornado reports than I would have expected (I'm not sure how many could have been from the same tornado) and also quite a few hail reports buried in there. You can read about the storm reports for April 27th here.
That's it for today. The forecast today is complex and uncertain so keep an eye out for changing weather conditions, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the earlier storms are a little more severe than expected, especially in the western FL Panhandle.
Chris
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