June 14, 2023
The severe weather threat has increased significantly for today. While most of us will be either to the south or the north of the highest risk area we will still be at risk and sometimes these forecast areas expand or get moved during the day. As you can see there is a Moderate (Red) risk area across a portion of south-central Alabama. In this area, particularly for south-central to southeastern Alabama, there is a 10% chance of a tornado with EF2 or stronger tornadoes possible. Also in the Moderate risk area there is a 30% chance of hail and a 45% chance of damaging winds.
An Enhanced (Orange) risk area extends to the north through part of the Birmingham area and to the south into parts of the western Florida Panhandle. In this area there is a 2-5% chance of a tornado, 5-15% chance of hail, and a 30% chance of damaging winds.
A Slight (Yellow) risk area covers most of the rest of Alabama as well as the Florida Panhandle. Isolated tornadoes (except for northern Alabama), hail, and damaging winds are threats here as well, although with lower probabilities.
Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible starting later this morning and also overnight, take a look at the graphics for your area. The Mobile office had not updated their info as of the time of this writing, but timing should be similar if not a little earlier than that shown by the Tallahassee office. Areas north of Birmingham could see some severe storms this afternoon through the late evening, but the risk is lower than locations to the south.
Outlook for Today and Overnight
Birmingham - Montgomery
Florida Panhandle
Severe weather will also be possible tomorrow and Friday but I'll cover that later as I do not want to detract from today's threat. Right now the risk looks to be lower than it is today.
Stay safe.
Chris
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