June 15, 2023
We are now in our fifth consecutive day where there has been a severe weather threat in the Southeast and it looks like it will continue through at least Saturday. As I write this the western Florida Panhandle is already under a tornado watch valid until 3 p.m. (I expect this will get extended).
The good news is that the risk for today isn't as high as it was yesterday. Today there is a Slight risk of severe weather from Montgomery south to the coast including all of the Florida Panhandle east to the Big Bend. In this area there is a 5% chance of a tornado for pretty much all of the Panhandle except for Cape San Blas. There is also a 15% chance of hail for the whole Slight risk area, with hail larger than 2" possible (indicated by the hatched area) from the Mobile area east to Panama City. Damaging winds (15% chance) are possible as well. Severe timing is from now (Thursday morning) through this evening. A Marginal risk area with lower chances of severe weather extends north to Birmingham as shown.
Outlook for Today
Mobile-Pensacola Area
Walton County and Panama City Area
Montgomery - Birmingham Area
I'll debrief each day in a separate post covering this whole event after all of this is over, but just for yesterday there were almost 500 reports of severe weather. As mentioned above there will be more rounds of storms for Friday and Saturday that I'll cover tomorrow. Unfortunately as well the unsettled weather may last until late next week...
Stay safe and have a good day.
Chris
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