June 19, 2023
We're going to talk about the tropics and severe weather today.
Synopsis: there are two systems being watched in the Atlantic, one just developed into a tropical depression as I was writing this (now TD 3), and development with the second is not yet certain (40% chance) but getting more likely. It is still a long way out for both systems, but what I'm seeing right now is that impacts to the US seem unlikely. Also, severe storms will remain possible in the Southeast through Wednesday if not for longer. Details on both situations below.
Talking tropics first, two systems, TD 3 and Invest 93L, are moving west across the tropical Atlantic. Looking at the 7-Day Outlook below if you didn't know any better you would think we were in August instead of mid June. This is very abnormal activity in this region of the Atlantic this time of year.
The lead system, now TD 3 (previously Invest 92L), just developed this morning and is expected to strengthen as it continues west. I won't go into too many details here but models are in two camps with this storm. Some models bring TD 3 west as a bit of a stronger storm. The good news with this scenario is that a stronger storm is likely to feel a steering influence that will take it out to sea to the north. Other models keep the storm weaker but on more of a westerly track. You can see below that this solution looks to be the consensus at this time. Even though this more westward track would be a concern for us in the US, it is expected that a weak (or weakening) storm entering the eastern Caribbean would run into hostile conditions and likely dissipate. So right now either solution likely leads to a situation where the US isn't at risk. The official forecast below seems to contradict what I just stated so let me try to clarify that. The NHC forecast strengthens the storm fairly quickly, having it become a hurricane by Wednesday. After that conditions are expected to become more hostile slowing down strengthening or even starting to weaken the storm. I think this part of the forecast occurs before a stronger storm would feel the northward tug and so the NHC has a weakening storm moving into the Caribbean instead of a stronger storm being pulled north. I will note that the NHC discussion mentioned that there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the storm strength and that there will likely be adjustments in the track in the future. The cone can look kind of scary, but everything I'm seeing leads me to think we will be fine.
The second system, the orange one, Invest 93L, still has several days to go before (if) it develops. Again it's too far out to know for sure, but a majority of models at this time eventually pull this system north out to sea leading me to conclude that there is little to no risk with this system at this time. This system is still too new for pretty graphics, but we will have those later today and I'll share them next time.
Now getting to the severe weather chances... I won't go into detail here, but expect the weather along the coast and central to southern Alabama to be about the same as it has been. Day to day specific details and timing may vary, but expect a chance of severe storms for today at least through Wednesday (and probably beyond). Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible. The overall risk level isn't high, but it is enough of a risk that we should all be aware of what is going on in our area and take that into account when making plans for the day. Unfortunately I'm not yet seeing much of a break in this pattern, so expect it to continue through next weekend if not beyond.
Today through Tomorrow Morning
7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday
7 a.m.Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday
I crammed a lot in this update today (instead of sending two emails) and hopefully it makes sense. If you want more details on something let me know. Otherwise stay safe and have a good week. Because both of these situations will be ongoing later in the week, I'll probably repeat this format for my next update midweek.
Chris
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