September 24, 2023
Synopsis: lots going on in the tropics, but most likely no threats to land. Philippe (the wave I mentioned on my last update) will curve out to sea or otherwise not be an issue. The yellow area in the southern Gulf is unlikely to develop (10% chance). The orange 'x' will probably curve out to sea behind Philippe if it develops. In the longer term, there may be another storm next week that develops close in to the Carolinas similar to Ophelia. Read on for more details.
I really don't have that much to say in addition to the synopsis but here are a few more details. The cone for Philippe is below, it looks to curve safely out to sea (probably). Interestingly, the Euro has a solution where Philippe doesn't curve much, but instead continues west-northwest and then dissipates. There are some similar solutions in the ensembles, but either way it doesn't seem to be a threat to land. Regarding the Gulf, there is a low pressure area being watched (the yellow 'x') but I don't think we'll see much come of this. There may be some slow development over the next few days as it moves westward after which conditions are expected to become hostile. I'd be a bit surprised if it even becomes a tropical depression but we'll see. Back out in the Atlantic the orange 'x' to the southeast of Philippe is another tropical wave that has a pretty good shot at becoming our next tropical cyclone. I'm pretty confident this will also curve out to sea if it develops and it may interact somehow with Philippe (which generally is hostile for the system). Lastly, something the models have been hinting at next week is that we may see another storm spin up in the Atlantic off of the South Carolina or North Carolina coasts similar to Ophelia or maybe a bit more north off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. It's too soon to know for sure if anything will happen, but we usually don't have to be concerned with storms in that area.
That's it for the tropics today. For the Southeast the rain chances have increased a bit for this week from about Montgomery south to the coast and for Eastern Tennessee with isolated showers elsewhere. Temps through the end of the week should be more or less near normal for this time of year with the exception that coastal areas may see below normal highs once the rainy weather sets in. After this week things look to dry out in the longer term through the first week of October with near normal temps near the coast and above normal temps inland into Alabama and Tennessee.
Have a great week!
Chris
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