Tropical Weather Update

September 21, 2023

TL;DR (too long; didn't read): a healthy tropical wave in the Atlantic (red 'x') needs to be watched to see how far west it will go before turning north. Models disagree right now if it will turn out to sea or bring impacts to land. It is something to watch but at this time I think it will likely curve north before it gets anywhere close threatening the Gulf Coast but it may end up being a threat to the Lesser Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas, or the East Coast. We may also see a system spin up quickly off of the East Coast (orange 'x') but major impacts are not expected. Nigel is just doing his thing out there.

Now, the longer version. The tropics have remained busy since my last update two weeks ago with hurricanes Lee, Margot, and Nigel being tracked but thankfully not being significant threats to land. Today I want to make you aware of one system that we may need to watch more closely in about a week's time. In the 7 Day Outlook above the red 'x' in the Atlantic is a tropical wave that is expected to develop as it moves west. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 70% chance through 7 days. On satellite it is already starting to look well organized and I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't become a tropical depression soon (despite the 20% chance in the short term). So far every storm forming in this region has curved off to the north before it has had a chance to approach the Caribbean or East Coast but that may not be the case here. The GFS and Euro are in two different camps with this system. The Euro has slower forward movement and slower development. The former helps this system get picked up sooner by the high pressure in the Atlantic and pulled north before it can impact the Lesser Antilles. The GFS however has faster development and faster forward speed which (with variation run to run) brings the system farther west and impacting land before starting the turn north. It's really too far out to say where this storm will ultimately go so it's something to watch. If the GFS ends up being correct we may see a storm threatening the islands next week, which also increases the chance it could be a threat to the East Coast or maybe (very unlikely at this point) the Gulf. Right now the chance of this is pretty low given the expected steering environment.

As for the Southeast, expect mostly dry weather in the near term if not longer, with a slight chance of rain early next week. The below average temps will end early next week with more seasonable (slightly warmer highs and lows) returning.

That's it for today, enjoy the Easter Egg (hint, click the link on the date at the top)!

Chris