Multiple Days of Severe Weather Near the Coast Starting Tonight

January 5, 2024

I hope you all had a great holiday season! The rain we had a few days ago kicked off an active period in our weather and was the first in a sequence of four (or more) systems that will move through the Southeast through the following weekend (and probably longer).

For the next two systems each one is going to be stronger than the last. First up is a system that will move through tonight into early Saturday and bring with it a Marginal (level 1 of 5) chance of severe weather including an isolated tornado or two (2% chance) and a 5% chance of damaging winds confined to the Alabama and Florida Panhandles. Timing graphics are shown below, but expect the possibility of severe storms to start in the late evening for the Mobile area with the risk moving into the overnight and morning hours for the Florida Panhandle.

Day 1 Outlook (through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Destin-Panama City

I don't expect any significant impacts from this first system but there could be some isolated areas that experience damaging winds and we may see a tornado or two across the region.

It's too early to talk specifics but the next system will come through on Monday and Tuesday with what may end up being a significant threat of severe weather again for the coastal areas and a little farther inland as well. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this system as one to watch for several days now and that indicates relatively high confidence that significant impacts will be possible. We will have better information on Sunday and throughout the day Monday but for now it is good to start dusting off your severe weather plan. This will be an overnight event for some of us so make sure you have multiple ways of receiving watch and warning notifications. More to come on this.

Day 4 Outlook (7 a.m. Monday - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 5 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

We have to go all the way back to the 9th and 10th of December for our last severe weather event. Storm reports for these days are below and I have to say this event was a little bit more active than I had expected.

December 9, 2023 Reports

December 10, 2023 Reports

On a personal note I want to let you all know that my family moved to the Mobile, AL area just a few days ago. Other than some additional content for the area near our new home expect no changes to the areas or types of weather events I have been covering.

That's it for today, you'll hear from me again on Sunday. Have a great weekend.

Chris