January 7, 2024
Hi everyone, I hope you had a good weekend. We now have more details on the severe weather threat Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe weather for the Alabama and Florida Panhandles and adjacent inland areas with Slight and Marginal risk areas extending beyond these. For late Monday through daybreak Tuesday there is a 10% chance of a tornado, including EF2 or stronger tornadoes, a 30% chance of damaging winds, and a low hail chance in the Enhanced area with these probabilities decreasing for surrounding areas. Specific probabilities for areas that will be impacted after daybreak Tuesday have not been issued yet but I expect them to be similar. Two rounds of severe storms are possible. The first round may come from warm front storms streaming in off the Gulf late Monday and the second round will come later as a squall line moves through early Tuesday into Tuesday morning from west to east ahead of a cold front.
Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Monday - 6 a.m. Tuesday)
Day 3 Outlook (6 a.m. Tuesday - 6 a.m. Wednesday)
Mobile - Pensacola Area
Destin - Panama City Area
This could be a significant event for some areas near the coast. Since it will be an overnight or early morning event it is especially important to have a shelter plan in place ahead of time and multiple ways of receiving watches and warnings that will wake you up. In addition to the severe threat rainfall totals in the 2-3" range or greater are possible across the region so be aware of that as well.
I don't expect the threats or threat area to significantly change but if they do I'll let you know. Otherwise stay up to date with local media outlets for the latest information.
Stay safe.
Chris
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