March 15, 2024
Note made April 8th, 2024: While doing a review of my posts I noticed that the second map below (marked Day 3 Outlook) is incorrect. I accidentally included the Day 1 map twice.
The severe weather forecast has been evolving a bit since yesterday. The Day 2 forecast yesterday was not indicating any severe weather threat for the immediate coastal areas today but that has changed as of the 11:30 a.m. CDT update. The Storm Prediction Center is now forecasting a Slight risk of severe weather from just south of Montgomery to the coast for Alabama and the Florida Panhandle east just about to Panama City. A Marginal risk area extends a bit more to the east from the Slight risk area. The main threats in the Slight risk area look to be hail and damaging winds (both 15%) with an isolated tornado risk (2%). These risks are reduced to 5% respectively in the Marginal risk area with some of the tornado threat area extending into a portion of the Marginal risk area. Severe storm timing is this afternoon through the evening.
For Day 3 (Sunday) a Marginal risk of severe weather is forecast for the Alabama coast and western FL Panhandle. Right now it looks like the main risk will be damaging winds with severe storm timing in the evening. More details to come.
Day 1 (Today)
Day 3 (7 a.m. Sunday - 7 a.m. Monday)
That's it for this update. I'll provide more details for Sunday as we get closer, but right now the risk looks fairly low.
Chris
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