Thursday, March 14, 2024

Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Tonight and Tomorrow

March 14, 2024

I almost didn't post this because the risk is low, but it nagged at me so here we are. The SPC is forecasting a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather overnight into tomorrow. Overnight and into the early morning the risk area is confined to northwest Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee with the risk area sliding to the southeast for Saturday. Right now only a tiny sliver of Northwest Florida is included tomorrow. Sometimes the risk areas are expanded or adjusted in later forecasts so if you're near one of the boundaries keep an eye out for changes for your area. For both time periods the main risk is damaging winds (5%) but there is small risk of hail (5%) and an isolated tornado risk (2%) for portions of the risk areas. Severe storm timing is in the overnight and early morning hours for people in the Day 1 risk area and from the morning through the evening for Day 2 (tomorrow) with the threat later in the period for people farther to the south and east.

Day 1 Outlook (7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Friday)


Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)


Other than the typical disruptions that stormy weather can bring I'm expecting minimal impacts. All the same, stay aware of changing weather conditions.

Regarding the severe weather forecast last Friday and Saturday (the 7th and 8th) there weren't many events reported. That said I would say the forecast was close to being accurate as there were 21 reports over a fairly large area and the overall risk was low. We had quarter size hail at our house Friday night but thankfully no damage and it didn't last long.

The front bringing the stormy weather will stall near the coast through Sunday. After it clears out we'll get another shot of cool and clear weather. Temps will be below normal for a few days and then return to near normal for the foreseeable future. Rain and storms may return towards the end of next week. After that we may see some more cool weather around the end of the month or first week of April.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

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