Severe Weather Possible to Likely Tomorrow for Middle AL North Through All of TN

April 1, 2024

I hope you all had a great Easter weekend. No April Fools' joke...the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an Enhanced (orange, level 3 out of 5) risk of severe weather tomorrow for northern Alabama and central Tennessee with a Slight risk of severe weather south of this to middle Alabama and east and west of the Enhanced region in Tennessee covering nearly the whole state. Within the Enhanced region there is a small(ish) area with a 10% chance of a tornado. Otherwise in the Enhanced region there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 30% chance of damaging winds, and a 15% chance of hail. The 15% hail chance also covers most of the Slight region. Also in the Slight region there is a 2% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds. A Marginal risk area reaches down towards the Alabama coastal areas and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle with a 5% chance of damaging winds being the only threat at this time.

Severe weather timing is from late afternoon through the evening for northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee and from early evening through the late night hours for middle Alabama. Towards the coast storm timing looks to be late evening and overnight, but here I expect the severe threat to be minimal.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Huntsville Area

Eastern TN

Montgomery-Birmingham

There were a few reports of hail and damaging winds in the central Florida Panhandle on March 26th but other than that the storms weren't too bad. I expect tomorrow to be different. I don't think there will be a major outbreak but I do think there will be some impacts, especially in the Enhanced region. Stay aware of changing conditions and any changes to the forecast for your area.

After the front clears out on Wednesday we'll have clear weather through maybe early next week with about 5 days of spring-like below average temps. It looks like warmer weather is in store after that but we'll see if we get a few more rounds of cool air.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris