June 25, 2024
The tropics have quieted down a bit since Alberto impacted Mexico and then two other weak systems brought squally conditions again to Mexico and the northern Florida/southeast Georgia area respectively last week. Currently the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave that may try to develop later this week as it nears the western Caribbean. Right now models aren't very bullish on this idea and it looks like anything that does develop would likely stay away from the US so no concerns.
Looking out to the 7-10 day range both the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (the Euro) are hinting that one or more tropical waves just coming off of the African coast may try to develop as they near the Lesser Antilles next week. You can see the ensemble model tracks below. This is 9 days out from midnight UTC last night. It may look like a lot but it is really not. The GFS ensemble is 31 separate models and you're seeing the GFS try to develop two different waves. So maybe 10 out 31 members show development, and of those only 1, or maybe 2, shows any significant development (the red track). The ECMWF ensemble is a 51 member model and even fewer members are showing development and all of them fairly weak at that. It is really too early in the season for this kind of development by several weeks anyway but we'll see. Something to watch but I don't think we need to be concerned about this. Most likely the islands will see some stormy weather for a few days but that is probably it. The only reason I'm showing you the models is so that you have a few more pictures to look at and so I have more to talk about. Notice also that neither show much development in the western Caribbean from the area the NHC has highlighted above.
Otherwise, coastal areas will have another chance of rain today with rain chances, albeit fairly low, expanding to the north tomorrow and then over a lot of the southeast the rest of the week. Typical weather for early to mid summer.
Have a good week.
Chris
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