Tropical Development Likely in the Gulf of Mexico This Week

September 22, 2024

Confidence is still high that some sort of tropical system will develop in the northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a 40% chance of development through 2 days and an 80% chance through 7 days. A Central American Gyre has formed as expected and it is likely that a tropical cyclone will form out of this circulation. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the timeframe of development and the potential strength of the storm once it forms. As always we won't have a solid forecast until a low level center forms. However, it does seem that we have a better idea of where the storm may go. From what I've read today confidence in the upper level steering flow forecast is fairly good now and it looks like the landfall window has narrowed from the AL/FL line to Tampa (those outside this area don't let your guard down yet). While that is still very large it is smaller than the Louisiana to Tampa window we had a few days ago. This is good news in that once the storm forms I think the track confidence will increase quickly. The bad news is that whoever gets this storm will not have much time to prepare. While I think the overall intensity trend has decreased a little in that fewer ensemble members are showing stronger solutions than before, a major hurricane of category 3 strength is still a possibility. I'm hoping there isn't time over water for anything stronger than that and we could also just see a tropical storm at its strongest but the consensus at this time is that at least a category 1 hurricane is expected.

It may not be until Tuesday or Wednesday that the forecast starts to consolidate with the storm making landfall as soon as Thursday or Friday. Today several local meteorologists started to recommend that people along the eastern and central Gulf Coast start making preparations since there will be short warning time for this storm. These people are usually fairly conservative and don't say things of this nature unless the situation is serious. Most of us probably have time to keep watching but if you have preparations that take some time you may want to get started.

I'll send out the next update as soon as there is more information.

Chris