September 18, 2024
The tropics remain somewhat active and the National Hurricane Center is watching a new area in the western Caribbean for tropical development. It looks like a broad area of rotation called a Central American Gyre (CAG) may form near Panama and Costa Rica this weekend. CAGs can sometimes develop enough vorticity (large scale spin) to provide a seed for tropical development. Several models have been showing this scenario for a few days and it has been consistent enough for the NHC to flag this area with a 20% chance of development through 7 days.
My opinion is that we need to watch this area closely. CAG development can be tricky to forecast but there is enough consistency that I would say there is at least a 50% chance we'll see development in this area next week, maybe as early as Monday or Tuesday or perhaps not until later in the week. If development occurs the most likely track will generally be to the north with a broad range of possibilities. There is one scenario where this system gets stuck under a ridge and goes west, but I don't think that is very likely. That said it's still early and I don't have a lot of confidence in the track forecast. It's too early also to think about intensity. I will say that it looks like a northward moving storm may be interacting with a trough as it gets into the northern Gulf and that would impart wind shear and hopefully limit intensity. We could also see another system try to develop off the East Coast around the same time that could cause unfavorable conditions in the Gulf.
There is a chance that a CAG doesn't form at all or that if it does development occurs in the Pacific instead of the Caribbean. There are a lot of variables still in play but I think there's a strong enough signal to pay close attention to this area. Hopefully confidence will increase over the weekend but as always until a storm actually forms uncertainty remains relatively high.
Have a good rest of the week.
Chris
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