Update on Tropical Storm Francine

September 10, 2024

With impacts expected to begin tomorrow, I think it is a good time for an update. I'm not going to go into too many details on the hurricane forecast itself as I think the forecast cone gets the point across well enough. That said, there is still a little bit of uncertainty with timing, track, and intensity but no significant changes are expected. Below is the 10 a.m. update and what you are seeing is the new experimental forecast cone. The only difference is this shows inland impacts and not just impacts right along the coast. Francine, currently a tropical storm, is expected to become a hurricane sometime tonight. It is expected to make landfall along the east-central Louisiana coast as a strong category 1 hurricane tomorrow evening. It could be a bit stronger than that, but that is the current forecast.

I am going to focus my discussion from the MS/AL state line to the east but if you have questions about other areas please let me know. With the latest update, the track shifted a little to the east and Alabama coastal areas are now under a tropical storm watch. We could see this extend to the Florida Panhandle if the track shifts more or if the wind field expands a bit. Right now, tropical storm force winds could arrive along the Alabama coast as early as 8 a.m. Wednesday, with the most likely arrival time a bit later in the day. Barring any big changes, sustained tropical strong force winds are unlikely east of AL. Storm surge could be as high as 4 feet along the Alabama coast and Mobile Bay and I expect the western most part of Florida will see a slight (1-2 ft) increase in sea level as the storm approaches. Coastal flooding will likely occur, especially for low lying areas, and rip currents and high surf will be risks as well.

Flooding from rain and tornadoes will also be threats. Most of the FL Panhandle and SW AL are in a slight risk area for excessive rainfall, potential rainfall totals through Sunday (this storm should be out of the area before then) is shown.

The tornado threat will start Wednesday and will be confined mostly to coastal areas. On Thursday it may extend inland as far north as TN but there is a lot of uncertainty how far north the threat may go. As it is, the tornado threat isn't particularly high, but folks along the immediate coast, especially in the Mobile area, should be alert for severe weather should it occur.

That should about cover things. I expect only minor impacts for anyone east of the AL/MS state line, subtle changes to the details are possible but I don't expect any major changes. This is a good time for a reminder that threats from water, either coastal flooding from storm surge or inland flooding from rain, tend to be a much higher risk to people and property than wind. Keep that in mind if you're in an area prone to these hazards.

This should be my last update unless there are significant changes.

Stay safe.

Chris