October 2, 2024
Some good news. At least for the short term, development chances have decreased in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean (which I misspelled in my title in last update...). The NHC is now forecasting a 40% chance of development through 7 days, down from 50%. A few days ago it looked like we might see development start today or tomorrow and now that looks to be delayed until at least this weekend or next week, if at all. The situation is a bit complex, which is code for "we think something will probably happen but we don't know when or where." There is an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche that will expand to the north and increase rain chances along the coast through the weekend. This area may try to spin something up but that looks unlikely in the short term (3-5 days), or at the most it would be broad and disorganized. As we get into the weekend and early next week this area may have a better chance to consolidate or combine with energy from a front that will push south Monday through Wednesday. Overall the development signal is weak to moderate at the most (30-40% chance). Also, other than a few low probability solutions, there isn't a high likelihood of seeing a strong storm from this system.
I should have said it last time, but the other things out there are no concern for us. We'll need to watch the red 'X' to the southeast of Kirk for a few days, but I think it will likely recurve into the open Atlantic way before it gets close to us. Kirk is going to curve away for sure.
Outside of the tropics the weather will be mostly dry for maybe a week or more except near the coast as mentioned above. From now through the weekend expect temps to be at or a little above seasonal norms. Once the mostly dry cold front pushes through early next week we should all see a few days of below normal temps giving us our first taste of fall.
I'll keep you posted on the tropics if something changes. Have a good rest of the week and a good weekend.
Chris
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