Tropical Development Likely in the Gulf - Landfall Will Probably Be Along The FL Peninsula

October 4, 2024

Good news: it's Friday night. Bad news: I have to tell you that there may be another hurricane in the Gulf in a few days. Good news (for us in the Panhandle anyways...): it is probably going to hit the Peninsula. Now that that's out of the way...As recently as yesterday the spot in the Gulf was down to a 30% chance of development. Ever since midday yesterday all the models have quickly come on board with development of a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center now has this area (recently labeled Invest 92L) at 70% through 7 days and 30% through 2 days. Development is more or less certain and landfall looks to be around Wednesday. It is too early to know what the intensity will be with solutions ranging from a tropical storm to strong hurricane depending on whether the storm is located in a favorable location relative to the trough providing the steering influence. The trough may shear the storm and inhibit development or it may help vent the storm (as we saw with Helene) and aid in strengthening.

When a few models first started jumping back on board with this system yesterday I initially didn't pay too much attention, I thought they were just flip-flopping as they have been the last week or more. But overnight, every major model started indicating development. In addition, satellite images are showing the beginnings of organization so these aren't just spurious model solutions. The really good news (as I said, for us in the Panhandle anyways) is that the majority of models have tracks that take this system towards the Florida Peninsula, I've shared a super ensemble image below. None of us need a storm, but some of those areas in the Peninsula are still recovering from Helene. As always at this stage of the game there is some uncertainty but the steering pattern seems to be well established. We need to keep a watchful eye on any system in the Gulf, but I don't think this storm will be a concern for the Panhandle.

That's it for tonight. I'll send out another update once the forecast consolidates better in a day or two, but I don't expect any big changes.

Have a good weekend.

Chris