A Few Severe Storms Possible Tonight and Tomorrow Mostly Near the Coast

November 18, 2024

Happy Monday. Before I get into the possibility of severe weather a quick update on the tropics. Tropical Storm Sara formed last week and thankfully (for the US that is, Central America had some flooding unfortunately) it took a path over land instead of into the Gulf. It is dissipating and other than feeding moisture into the front we're about to get will cause no other issues. Also, I think we are done with hurricane season for the year if the longer term models are correct.

A cold front will move into the area overnight and tomorrow and along with it there is the possibility of a few severe storms. Currently there is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather tonight into tomorrow for the Alabama and Florida coastal and near coastal areas. The main threat is damaging winds (5% chance) but also an isolated tornado or two is possible (2% chance). Heavy rain and flooding is likely also, with 3-5" or maybe 6" in isolated areas expected thanks to extra moisture from Sara. The weather should clear tomorrow from about noon to the evening west to east. North of the coast the front will clear out earlier and no significant impacts are expected north of about Montgomery. Temps will drop Tuesday into Wednesday and should stay cool through the weekend, warming up next week. Right now the weather looks mostly clear through Thanksgiving but I'll let you know if it looks like there will be any travel impacts in the Southeast.

Day 1 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. today - 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Day 2 Outlook (valid 7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday

That's it for today. Stay safe if strong storms are in your area and if I don't have another update before then have a Happy Thanksgiving.

Chris