November 12, 2024
A quick look at the tropics this morning and then a note about the chance of some strong storms. As mentioned last time, it looks like another storm is going to develop in the Western Caribbean. Development probably will not occur until later this week and the current forecast from the NHC calls for a 40% chance within 2 days and an 80% chance within 7 days. I've posted a few model plots below, the first is the Euro ensemble and the second is the GFS ensemble so combined that is 82 different solutions. It's too early to say for sure, there isn't even a named storm yet for one thing, but I don't think this will head towards the northern Gulf or the Florida Panhandle, although the Big Bend area may be in play. Intensity possibilities are all over the board so a strong storm is possible but probably not very likely if it does head to the northern Gulf. The biggest concern may be another landfall along the Florida Peninsula or the Keys but again it's too early to say. Landfall timing would be around midweek next week.
The rain we're getting along the coast is from the remnants of Rafael, so it turned out that we did get some of it after all. Tomorrow a cold front will approach the area and along with it our first chance of severe weather this season. The good news is that the risk is low (5%) and confined to the Mobile area. A few damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado is possible Wednesday evening. While currently not in the forecast, we may see the risk extend into Thursday and to the east, but if so the risk will also be low. Rain will accompany the front but after that the weekend looks nice with some cooler and drier air behind it.
That's it for today. I'll let you know how the forecast evolves for this next storm.
Chris
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