Severe Weather Threat Increased for Today and Overnight

The risk level has increased for the significant severe weather outbreak expected today and tonight across the Southeast.

Threat Areas
A Moderate Risk (red, level 4 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of:

- Extreme western Alabama, extending west into parts of Mississippi and Louisiana

This is surrounded by Enhanced (orange, level 3 out of 5) and Slight (yellow, level 2 out of 5) risk areas extending across much of the Southeast and Texas.

- An Enhanced risk area extends into central Alabama, including Mobile and the western suburbs of Montgomery and Birmingham

- The remainder of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are in a Slight risk area

Primary Hazards

Multiple severe weather threats are expected:

- Tornadoes, some potentially strong, with EF2+ damage possible in western and central Alabama

- Severe wind gusts, especially in the Moderate and Enhanced risk areas

- Large hail (lower chance)

The greatest tornado potential will occur with any discrete (isolated) supercells, particularly near the warm front, which will lift north throughout the day. Later, as storms organize into linear segments, embedded bow echoes may produce both tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.

Timing and Evolution

The severe weather threat will progress in phases:

- This afternoon and evening: Scattered storms ahead of the squall line

- Tonight: A squall line, timing uncertain, will move through sometime from this evening to the morning

Mobile and Pensacola Areas

Birmingham and Montgomery

Florida Panhandle

As stated, the greatest tornado threat will occur ahead of the main line of storms. With the squall line the main threat will be damaging winds but there may be a few tornadoes as well.

The weather will rapidly evolve today. Have a plan on how to seek shelter if needed and make sure you have more than one way to receive warnings if they occur in your area. The risk for tomorrow is mostly unchanged for the Panhandle.

Stay safe.

Chris 

Severe Weather Possible the Rest of Today Through Sunday

I hope everyone had a great Christmas! I apologize for not sending out a travel weather update, it completely slipped my mind.

A significant severe weather threat is unfolding across the southeastern United States from Friday, December 27, through Sunday, December 29, 2024. Here's a summary of the severe weather risk:

Friday, December 27

A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening from southeast Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The main threats include:

- Locally gusty winds

- Brief tornadoes

The overall threat is marginal due to slow air mass recovery (lack of warm, unstable air) and widespread cloud cover limiting destabilization, although there have been two confirmed tornadoes in the Mobile, AL area.

Saturday, December 28

The severe weather risk significantly escalates, with an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of East Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. This regional outbreak may include:

- Large hail

- Damaging winds

- Strong tornadoes

Key points for Saturday:

- Severe weather timing will be from the afternoon through Sunday morning

- Development of numerous strong to severe storms from East Texas to the Tennessee Valley

- Potential for supercells (tornado producing storms) and linearly organized bowing segments (strong to very strong winds)

Sunday, December 29

A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas. The severe weather threat includes:

- Damaging wind gusts

- A couple of tornadoes

Notable factors for Sunday:

- Severe weather timing will be from the morning through the afternoon

- Ongoing storms early morning across parts of Alabama or western Georgia

- Gradual reintensification of convection through early afternoon

The severe weather risk is expected to diminish Sunday evening as buoyancy weakens.

For the rest of the week:

-Clear weather through Friday except for some showers in eastern Tennessee on Tuesday

-Below normal temps, possibly extending into the second week of January

That's it for today. For the last three updates there was only one notable severe weather report, a tornado in southeast Alabama on December 9th.

Happy New Year and stay safe!

Chris

Isolated Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Possible Through Wednesday

December 9, 2024

Severe storms are expected from late morning through the evening hours on Tuesday for parts of the Southeast, heavy rainfall is the main impact for most:

Primary Threat Areas

A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms exists across:

- Central and South Alabama

- Southwest Georgia

- Florida Panhandle

Hazard Types

The Storm Prediction Center outlook panels show:

- Tornado Risk: 2% probability in central Alabama and southwest Georgia

- Wind Threat: 5% probability in the same area

Primary Threats

- Isolated rotating storms and bowing segments

- Damaging wind gusts

- Possible tornadoes

- Limited severe potential due to widespread convection and cloud cover

The overall severe weather risk remains marginal, with the greatest potential for severe weather focused across the Southeast region during the Tuesday forecast period.

Valid 6 a.m. Tuesday - 6 a.m. Wednesday





Excess rainfall is also a risk:

Day 1 Rainfall Outlook (rest of today/Monday)

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists along the Central Gulf Coast with:

Rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour

Training storms possible in southwest-east oriented bands

Primary concerns for urban areas including New Orleans, Biloxi, and Mobile

Expected rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, with 20-40% chance of exceeding 3 inches



Day 2 Rainfall Outlook (Tuesday)

A Slight Risk extends from southeastern Alabama to upstate South Carolina featuring:

Areal average rainfall totals of 2-3 inches

Locally higher amounts possible

Primary impact zone from southeastern Alabama through central Georgia into upstate South Carolina

Expected rainfall:

2-3 inches widespread (locally up to 4 inches) from SE Alabama through Central GA to Upstate SC



After the rain clears out, expect another few days of cold weather. It is still expected that the second half of December will be mostly warm but there will probably be 2-4 more shots of cold air before January.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris