Strong Storms Possible Tonight Through Sunday for Alabama and Tennessee

May 16, 2025

 ⚠️ Multiple rounds of severe weather are expected across Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee over the next three days, with the greatest threat occurring tonight into early Saturday morning. The region will experience progressively diminishing severe weather risks through the weekend, though severe thunderstorm chances will persist each day.

Day 1 (Friday Evening - Early Saturday Morning)

Alabama:

• Risk Level: Northern Alabama under Slight Risk, central Alabama under Marginal Risk

• Expected Hazards:
  🌪️ Tornado threat present in northern portions (2% risk)
  🧊 Significant hail threat with 15% risk in northern regions
  💨 Damaging wind risk of 15% across northern Alabama

• Timing: From approximately 10 PM tonight until early Saturday morning

Huntsville Area

Montgomery-Birmingham Area

Central to Eastern Tennessee:

• Risk Level: Central Tennessee Enhanced Risk, Eastern Tennessee under Slight Risk

• Expected Hazards:
  🌪️ More significant tornado potential in central areas (5-10%)
  🧊 Enhanced hail threat (15-30%) across central Tennessee
  💨 Damaging wind threat (15-30%) with potential gusts over 65 mph

• Timing: From approximately 10 PM tonight until early Saturday morning

Day 2 (Saturday Afternoon - Evening)

Most of Alabama Except Coastal Areas and Central Tennessee:

• Risk Level: Northern Alabama under Marginal Risk

• Expected Hazards:
  🌪️ Minimal tornado threat
  🧊 Limited hail threat (5%)
  💨 Wind threat present (5%)

• Timing: Saturday afternoon through evening

Day 3 (Sunday Afternoon - Evening)

Alabama, Again Excluding Coastal Areas, and Central Tennessee:

• Risk Level: Primarily Marginal Risk (light green) across the state

• Expected Hazards:
  ⛈️ General thunderstorm activity likely, with damaging winds possible

• Timing: Sunday afternoon through evening

⚠️ The greatest severe weather threat appears to be on Day 1 (tonight into early Saturday), particularly for Central Tennessee where the combination of tornado, hail, and wind threats is most significant.

Looking Ahead: The next weather system will move into the southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearer weather likely for the end of the week and weekend.

Have a great weekend.

Chris