Severe Weather and Winter Weather Expected Later Today and Overnight

February 17, 2020

The active weather continues today with winter weather starting later today for folks up north and severe weather possible in the late evening and lasting overnight into Thursday for those near the coast.

The SPC is forecasting a slight to marginal chance of severe weather tonight into tomorrow for areas near the coast. Locations in the yellow area have 5% tornado, 15% damaging wind, and 5% hail probabilities. Locations in the dark green area have 2% tornado, 5% damaging wind, and 5% hail (for some locations) probabilities. Storms will start moving off the Gulf to our west in the afternoon followed by a frontal line of storms with this continuing as the system moves east overnight. For people in the Florida Panhandle the severe threat might not start until late evening, continuing overnight into Thursday morning as the system clears the area to the east. Rain may remain in the area for a while tomorrow but I think the severe threat will diminish by noon.

Another round of winter weather will impact northern Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee starting later today and lasting overnight. I don't think this storm will bring impacts as far south as we saw a few days ago. Precip will be mixed again so pay attention to local media for conditions in your area. Graphics for different areas are below. Keep in mind that this can change.

Middle Alabama

Northern Alabama

Central Tennessee

Eastern Tennessee

After this system clears the area later tomorrow we will have some settled weather until Sunday or Monday. Thankfully the next system doesn't look to be as active as the weather has been this week. I think we can expect some gradual warming as well.

Stay safe and have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Threat Increased to Enhanced for FL Panhandle

February 15, 2021

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the severe weather threat to enhanced for portions of the Florida Panhandle. Included in this area is a 10% tornado probably and 30% damaging wind probability. The black hatching indicates a 10% probability of significant severe weather which is EF2 tornadoes or stronger and thunderstorm winds exceeding 74 mph. With this forecast the SPC is expecting "a strong tornado or two along with scattered damaging winds likely." The hail probability remains at 5%.

Stay safe and stay alert for rapidly changing weather. Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and listing for watches and warnings.

Chris

Very Active Weather the Next Few Days

February 14, 2021

It's been a while since my last weather update. The weather's been fairly benign so I didn't see the need to send an email to say nothing interesting was happening. Well, that is all changing... Winter weather in some form is possible northwest of line bisecting Alabama from the southwest to northeast and from there into Tennessee. The farther north and west you are, the more winter precip you can expect. Winter weather in the south is a tricky forecast and everything from freezing rain to sleet to snow is possible overnight tonight into Monday night as the weather moves east. Freezing rain is probably the biggest hazard.

A large portion of the country has some kind of interesting weather right now...

Middle Alabama...

Northern Alabama...

East Tennessee...

Severe weather will be possible in the eastern Panhandle Monday. All modes of severe weather, tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail, are possible with the main threat time being from the afternoon through early evening.

There's too much going on to get into details in each area so pay attention to local media for the latest details.

Stay safe and take pictures!

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Overnight Into Friday

December 31, 2020

I don't have a lot of time to write a lot of details this morning as we're heading back from a short trip. Severe weather is possible starting this evening and lasting into Friday. The worst of it looks to stay to our west as you can see in the Day 1 & 2 Outlook maps. Still, there will be some threat from the Panhandle and west Alabama that lessens and moves eastward overnight. A warm front will lift north across the region later today bringing the first and main threat of severe weather. This will be followed by a cold front that will sweep in from the west tomorrow morning that will provide a lesser threat for severe weather. All three modes of severe weather (tornadoes, wind, and hail) are possible today and overnight with tornadoes and wind being the main threats tomorrow, again to a lesser extent.

Day 1

Day 2

Here's how the event may look on simulated radar, keep in mind this will not be exact as far as timing and location goes.

These threat maps usually change a little bit as we get closer to the event so check your local weather sources for updated info if you have any plans tonight. As always make sure you have a way of receiving weather alerts and keep and eye out for changing weather.

Happy New Year!

Chris

Update to Severe Weather Risk and Timing for Tonight

December 23, 2020

The timing and risk level for severe weather overnight have changed a bit so I wanted to provide an update. On the Day 1 Outlook the SPC has added a slight (yellow) risk area that covers the Alabama coast and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. This area corresponds to a 5% tornado risk and a 15% damaging wind risk. Extending into the rest of the Panhandle and the southern third of Alabama is a Marginal risk area that corresponds to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk. This outlook is valid until 6 a.m. tomorrow. 

The Day 2 outlook beginning at 6 a.m. tomorrow shows a marginal risk area for most of the Panhandle and the southeast corner of Alabama corresponding to a 2% tornado risk and 5% damaging wind risk.

Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon with coverage increasing overnight through tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches from the west. Some of the isolated storms coming off the Gulf after midnight may be severe but the main event will be along the front as it pushes through from the pre-dawn hours to late morning from west to east. Yesterday I thought the front would clear the area by noon but it looks like showers won't leave the eastern Panhandle until the afternoon or early evening hours. The model animation below will give you a rough idea what the weather will look like, just keep in mind timing could be off by several hours and storm location could be off by 1-2 counties.

The wind will be breezy today ahead of the front with strong cold winds behind tomorrow. I don't think this will be a major or widespread event but it's always good to make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings and to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather. Temps Christmas night will be the coldest of the season so far so make sure to protect your plants and exposed pipes if you haven't done so yet.

Have a great rest of the week and again have a Merry Christmas!

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Wed Night & Early Thurs, Cold and Sunny on Christmas

December 22, 2020

It's been a while since my last email. The weather's been pretty typical for this time of year with only a really low chance for severe weather a time or two that didn't come to much. On Wednesday evening a strong storm system will move east. This storm will bring a white Christmas for some people as far south as eastern Tennessee. Northern Alabama could see a little but right now that doesn't look very likely.

Before the cold air moves in there will be severe weather risk sometime between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Timing is a bit uncertain but it looks like the weather will move through between midnight and a few hours after dawn. Right now there is a marginal risk for severe weather for most of  Alabama and the Florida Panhandle overnight Wednesday with this area narrowing to just the Panhandle and southeast Alabama by Thursday morning. Wind shear, one of the ingredients needed for severe weather, will be plentiful but instability, one of the other ingredients, will be limited. Because of this there is only a 2% tornado risk and a 5% damaging wind risk although we may see the tornado risk increase to 5% as we get closer. This high shear low CAPE (instability) scenario is typical for the southeast this time of year. Instability will be the greatest in isolated pockets and this is where the worse weather will be. This is good because it keeps the threat limited to isolated storms here or there but it makes it difficult to predict.

This system will move through quickly so except for snowfall in eastern Tennessee on the backside all of the weather should clear the area probably before noon Thursday. If you're going to be on the road early be careful and keep an eye out for changing weather. Windy cold air will move in quickly behind the front so expect a windy and cool Christmas Eve day and evening. Christmas Day will be cold, it may not even reach 50 all the way to the beach with highs in the upper 40's near the coast and upper to low 30s from Montgomery north. Christmas night will be cold with freezing temps likely all the way to the coast and lows in the upper to low 20's from the FL/AL line northward. Temps will warm up through the weekend and for the start of the last week of the year.

If the severe weather risk increases I will send an update, otherwise have a great week and a Merry Christmas!

Chris

Slight Chance of Severe WX Today Followed by Cold Air

 November 29, 2020

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight (yellow) risk for severe weather near the FL and AL coasts with a Marginal (dark green) risk extending a little farther inland in southern AL today through tonight. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of tornadoes and damaging winds. The 5% damaging wind risk extends throughout the Marginal area but with the tornado risk reduced to 2%. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as a warm front lifts north ahead of an approaching cold front and will persist until the cold front passes late this evening. There is a bit of uncertainty with this forecast and the SPC expects severe storms to only occur in isolated areas.

After the front passes we can expect several days of cold and sometimes breezy weather with a night or two of freezing temps almost all the way to the beaches. Northern AL and TN may even see some winter precip on the back side of the cold front. Lows may reach the upper 20's even in the northern FL Panhandle with Northern AL well into the mid to low 20's, eastern TN may see one night in the upper teens in places. We should see another weather system sometime between midweek and the weekend. There is a general pattern in place that will keep cooler than average weather in place maybe through the end of the second week of December with precipitation expected to be mostly below normal for this time of year.

That's it for today. Keep an eye out on the weather and have multiple ways of receiving alerts if you're in the severe weather risk area. Some of us haven't experienced freezing weather this year so it's time for us to protect our outdoor plants. Have a great week.

Chris