Severe Weather Possible on Thursday

March 23, 2021

Severe weather will again be possible on Thursday with a setup similar to last week. We'll get more details over the coming days but timing looks to be afternoon through overnight again. As of now I don't think this has the potential to be as bad as last week's event was supposed to be but we'll see how the forecast unfolds. There will probably be some severe risk on Friday but that may be well off to the east-northeast. There will also be some high rainfall totals possible but right now that is confined near the Alabama/Mississippi Gulf Coast and extreme western Florida Panhandle.

Speaking of last week, in once sense the forecast was a bit of a bust but in another way it wasn't. The afternoon storms were pretty much what was expected. However, the forecast was for the situation to get even worse during the evening and this never occurred. With that said, there have been 25 tornadoes confirmed so far with 21 of them in Alabama. I think this ranks 6th most on record for AL so all the same this was a significant event. It can be frustrating when a forecast doesn't pan out but in this case that was a very good thing. Nocturnal tornadoes in the south is probably the most deadly weather hazard we have down here.

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris

Severe Weather Likely Later Today and Overnight - A Very Dangerous Situation is Unfolding

March 17, 2021

Bad news overnight, the SPC increased the risk of severe weather to High (in pink) which is the highest level. Thankfully for those of you in Alabama most of this area is off to the west in Mississippi. The storms today will be an extremely hazardous situation for people in this area but don't take the threat lightly if you're in the red, orange, or yellow areas beyond this. You can see the other details below, including the timing which I got from here: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=224930. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible with scattered individual severe storms forming earlier out ahead of the main frontal passage which will also bring with it severe weather later. Some of the details will change throughout the day so pay attention to local media for up-to-date information. 

From the 4:51 a.m. SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html, updated throughout the day): 

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
   parts of the The lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast later
   today and tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Much of Mississippi
     Eastern and northern Louisiana
     Much of Alabama
     Much of Arkansas
     Southwest Tennessee
     Extreme southern Missouri

   * HAZARDS...
     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
     Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...
     A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected today and
     tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into
     Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes
     (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense
     damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe
     storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama
     during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

For Thursday, severe weather is also possible with the main risk to our east but with some lingering storms in southeast AL and the FL Panhandle during the morning hours.

For those of you in the higher risk areas plan now for where you will take shelter. Pay attention to rapidly changing weather conditions and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts, including something that can wake you up.

Stay safe.

Chris

Significant Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

March 16, 2021

There's only one way to say this, tomorrow looks like it's going to be bad in parts of the southeast. The forecast for today is largely the same as yesterday with a marginal risk for severe weather so I won't go into that. For Wednesday the Storm Prediction Center is indicating a moderate (red) risk for severe weather for a large portion of Alabama with enhanced (orange) and slight (yellow) risk areas surrounding. Within the moderate area there is a 15% probability of tornadoes. Within the enhanced area is a 10% probability of tornadoes and 30% probability of damaging wind and hail. The black hatching indicates that significant severe weather is possible, which is EF2 tornadoes or stronger, winds exceeding 75 mph, or 2" hail or larger. Long track tornadoes will be possible. Lesser probabilities for these threats extend into the slight and marginal areas as shown. The event will begin in the early afternoon to the west-northwest across Missouri and Arkansas spreading to the southeast as the afternoon progresses. There weren't a lot of details yet this morning but I think this will most likely be a late evening and overnight threat for Alabama which is particularly dangerous.

Thursday

The threat remains for Thursday as you can see below, but the higher risk areas look to be to our east. We'll have more details tomorrow.

As always be prepared and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts. If you know somebody in the higher risk areas make sure they are aware of what might happen tomorrow.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today through Thursday

March 15, 2021

Multiple days of severe weather will be possible this week with the main focus in Alabama.

Starting today, there is a marginal risk for severe weather for a large portion of Alabama including a 2% tornado probability and 5% probability of damaging wind and hail. Timing looks to be late morning into early evening for NE Alabama and early afternoon to later evening further south-southeast as a cold front moves through the area.

The same risk exists for tomorrow with the threat area extending down into the northern FL Panhandle a bit. The threat timing looks to be more in the early morning hours for northern AL and then throughout the day for the rest of the area. There will be several narrow west to east bands of weather throughout central AL that will eventually move off to the east in the late evening. Farther south, I think storms will be fairly scattered along a warm front that will slowly lift to the north.

The main event will be on Wednesday, with the SPC indicating Enhanced and Slight risk areas. We'll know more tomorrow about the specific threats and probabilities. I think the timing for the worst weather will be in the evening to overnight hours but it'll probably be late tomorrow before that is narrowed down.

As I mentioned yesterday, the threat will linger into Thursday across the eastern FL Panhandle and parts east with details to come over the next few days.

I'll pass along more details as I know them. It might be a good idea to understand how this might affect your plans over the next few days and make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts.

Chris

Severe Weather Wednesday into Thursday

March 14, 2021

Happy daylight savings day!

Severe weather is possible Wednesday overnight into Thursday. We'll have to wait until tomorrow and Tuesday for more details. This far out timing, etc. are usually a bit uncertain, but it looks like there could be a significant event, maybe more to our west.

Have a good week, I'll keep you up to date.

Chris

Slight to Marginal Chance of Severe Weather for Northeast AL and Central to East TN

February 28, 2021

There is a slight to marginal chance of severe weather today for the northeast corner of Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee. In the slight risk area there is a 5% chance of tornadoes and 15% chance of damaging winds, in the marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of tornadoes and 5% chance of damaging winds. Timing looks to be late afternoon through late evening. There are ongoing flood watches in the area as well.

As always, keep alert for changing weather and listen for watches or warnings. Have a great Sunday.

Chris

Lots of Rain for Northern AL and TN the Next Few Days

February 26, 2021

A mostly stationary weather system will remain in place over northern Alabama and Tennessee through the weekend. A cold front will move through Sunday into Monday followed by another system lifting north from the Gulf on Tuesday with rain potentially lasting through Wednesday. It looks like the weather may clear towards the end of the week. As of now there is no significant severe weather threat.

3 and 5 day rainfall totals are below as well as an animation of how the weather may progress.

Stay dry and have a good weekend!

Chris