Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Tomorrow for Central AL South to the Coast

February 2, 2022

It's been a few weeks since the weather has been active enough for me to send an update. The SPC has issued a marginal risk of severe weather from about Birmingham south through Destin and then west out of our region. The main threat will be a 5% chance of damaging winds with a 2% tornado and 5% hail chance confined near the Mobile-Pensacola area and SW AL. Scattered showers will be possible today and overnight but the severe threat doesn't look to get started until about mid day tomorrow for the western part of the region and then early afternoon for areas further to the south and east. The severe threat should end around sunset for the Birmingham-Montgomery area but it may linger into the late evening and perhaps early morning hours near the coast, ending later west to east.

Rain will linger into Friday clearing Friday evening in the Birmingham area and then by Saturday morning along the coast. Rainfall totals are below. Expect cooler weather to follow but not as cold as we have had recently.

That's it for today, I'll let you know if anything changes.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris

Winter Weather Advisory for Coastal AL and the Extreme Western FL Panhandle Tonight

January 20, 2022

The National Weather Service office in Mobile, AL has expanded its winter weather advisory to now include Escambia County in NW FL. Freezing rain is possible tonight through tomorrow morning which could cause hazardous driving conditions. FYI, freezing rain is when liquid water drops that are below freezing freeze instantly when they make contact with the surface, covering the surface with ice.

As of right now this area is the only one that is expected to have winter weather impacts through the next 24 hours or so. I'll let you know if that changes.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight Towards the Coast - Winter Weather to the North

January 15, 2022

A coastal low pressure with an attending cold front will move through the southeast today through tomorrow morning. There's a slight to marginal risk of severe storms this evening and overnight as the front passes. In the very small slight risk area from just east of Destin to east of Apalachicola there is a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% damaging wind risk. Outside of this in the marginal risk area there is a 2% tornado chance and a 5% damaging wind risk. A squall line associated with the front looks to pass through along the coast from this late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours and some of the embedded and pre-frontal storms may be severe.

Winter weather with some light accumulation will be possible to the north of this low and on the back side of it after it passes from about Birmingham north through middle and eastern TN. Timing will be from Sunday morning through the evening and maybe overnight farther north. It's possible that there could be a few fluires farther south tomorrow morning, perhaps even towards the coast, if there's enough moisture aloft and the air lower down isn't too warm. Don't count on it, but it may be possible.

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

Chattanooga Area

That's it for today. The severe weather threat may be after dark so keep that in mind this evening. Up north the roads may be a little messy so be careful.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Today from Birmingham South

January 9, 2022

Isolated severe storms will be possible today from Birmingham south to the coast from Pensacola east to Panama City. The Storm Prediction Center is expecting a marginal chance of severe weather for this area which coincides with a 2% chance of a tornado and 15% chance of damaging winds. There is an area in southwest central AL in a slight risk area with higher severe probabilities but I don't think that affects anyone on this list. Timing will be from about noon through mid evening with the threat ending earlier up north as a cold front pushes through.

Birmingham Area

Pensacola Area

Emerald Coast

I don't think this will be a significant event but I want you to know that a few severe storms are possible. Rain should clear by tomorrow morning bringing cooler weather (but not too cold this time). The next chance for rain looks to be Friday into Saturday.

Have a great week.

Chris

Slight Chance of Severe Weather Today Near The Coast, Winter Weather Possible from Birmingham North Tonight

January 2, 2022

Yesterday I mentioned that I thought most of today's severe weather would be to our east. While that may still be the case with the upgrade to a slight risk from the SPC I thought it'd be good to send out another quick update. There's also a chance of winter weather for parts north that I'll touch on.

The SPC has upgraded the severe risk to slight from about Navarre east through the Big Bend including southeast AL. There is a 5% chance of a tornado and a 15% chance of damaging winds in this area. A marginal risk extends west from Navarre through the AL Panhandle with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% damaging wind risk. A 5% chance of hail exists for part of the region as well. I'm not too sure about the timing. A main line of storms should enter the Pensacola area between 12-1 p.m., maybe a little earlier, and move out of the Panama CIty area between 5-7 p.m. Ahead of this we may see storms from two different sources. Radar is showing storms forming along an outflow boundary from the main line moving south-southeast ahead of the line. Scattered showers are also starting to develop just north of the coast and in the next hour or two we may see these also start to stream off the Gulf. So expect storms to start in the next hour or two, isolated at first, and then increase in coverage from west to east starting in the late morning and lasting through the evening. There may be a few scattered light showers behind the main line but nothing severe.

Winter weather possible tonight!

For areas from just north of Birmingham up through middle and eastern TN winter precip is possible this evening and tonight. Areas near Birmingham will see little to no accumulation (maybe 0.5") and areas from Cullman north may see 1-2." Have fun!

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

Chattanooga through Knoxville

That's it for today. Again, expect the weather to clear and become colder today into tonight with no rain expected through at least Wednesday morning.

Have a great week.

Chris 

Severe Weather Still on Tap for Today and Tomorrow

January 1, 2022

Happy New Year to you all! Hopefully the potential for severe weather today isn't a harbinger for things to come...

Not too much has changed for today with the forecast since yesterday. There is still a 10% chance of tornadoes in northern AL and middle to eastern TN with significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) possible. The 30% damaging wind (I mistakenly said 15% yesterday...) and 15% hail risk remains as well. The enhanced risk area has shrunk a little and is now just north of the Birmingham metro area, although it should be noted that these boundaries, like any forecast, aren't perfect. You can see the extent of the slight and marginal risk areas along with the risk of each severe weather mode below. Severe storms are still possible both ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening and along the front later with the chance for pre-frontal storms now looking to be a little lower. This is good news because the prefrontal severe storms will have the potential to be the worst, especially with regards to stronger tornadoes. Graphics for each region have been included again to help with timing.

Day-1 Outlook

NWS Birmingham

NWS Huntsville

NWS Morristown

NWS Mobile

NWS Tallahassee

Not much has changed for tomorrow either along the coast with the SPC still indicating a marginal chance of severe weather. It could be that the greatest risk will occur later in the day as the sun does its work and provides heating but I think most of the weather may be moving east out of the area by then.

Day-2 Outlook

NWS Tallahassee

Unless the severe weather threat today or tomorrow changes significantly this will be the last update from me on this event. The weather will clear out and cool down quite a bit on Sunday. After that our next chance of rain looks to be Wednesday into Thursday, severe weather doesn't look very likely at this time.

Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Chris

Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for AL and TN Tomorrow, Severe Weather Also Possible Today and Sunday

December 31, 2021

There are a lot of details to cover with severe weather possible from today through Sunday for various parts of the region. I'll do my best to capture the big picture but it's best for you all to get the latest info from your local weather sources.

For today through Saturday morning northern AL and middle to eastern TN have a marginal risk for severe weather with all modes (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) possible, albeit at low probabilities. For northern AL any storms that can get going today have the potential to be severe so watch for anything that develops in the afternoon. While some of this development could occur in middle TN the greater threat there seems to be from storms that start to develop in the evening and overnight hours as tomorrow's system approaches from the west.

For Saturday through Sunday morning the SPC has placed northern AL and middle to eastern TN in an enhanced risk area for severe weather with surrounding areas in slight and marginal risk areas towards the coast as shown. A 10% chance of significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) and a 15% damaging wind risk are the main threats in the enhanced region although hail is possible as well. The regional four-panel image doesn't show the significant severe hatching so I've also included SPC's graphic. Scattered storms will move in from the west in late morning or early afternoon with a squall line following in the evening and overnight hours. Severe storms may occur both ahead of the squall line during the afternoon and evening and along the squall line later. The simulated radar image shows this progression from Saturday morning through midnight Sunday but note that the actual weather is likely to vary from this, hopefully we'll have better confidence tomorrow. I've also included graphics from the local weather service offices for more detail.

Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Showing the Location of the Significant Tornado Threat

ECMWF Simulated Radar (actual weather will be different)

Birmingham NWS Graphic

Huntsville NWS Graphic

Morristown NWS Graphics 

Saturday's weather will start approaching the coast early Sunday morning. We'll get more details tomorrow but it's possible we could have a few damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado or two as storms sweep through. It is possible that some northern areas may see some winter precip on the back side of the front Sunday night but regardless all of us will see a significant cool down and the coldest weather of the season so far.

Yep, maybe some frozen precip!

Again lots of details, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and for those in the enhanced area tomorrow that you have a shelter plan to include helmets if at all possible. The local weather sources will cover this in real-time so they're your best source once the weather gets close.

I wish you all an enjoyable New Year's Eve tonight! Stay safe.

Chris