Two More Rounds of Strong Storms Are Possible Today and Tomorrow for Alabama and Tennessee

May 19, 2025

🌩️ Weather Summary: Active Weather Continues With Severe Chances Today and Tomorrow for AL and TN

🔮 Today (Monday, May 19)

• Slight Risk Area: Narrow corridor across central and eastern Tennessee

  • 15% chance of damaging winds and hail

• Marginal Risk Area: Extends into northern Alabama

  • 5% chance of damaging winds and hail

• Timing: Afternoon through mid-evening

Central and Eastern Tennessee

Huntsville Area

⛈️ Tomorrow (Tuesday, May 20)

• Enhanced Risk Area: Northwest Alabama and central Tennessee (including Huntsville and Nashville)

  • Tornado Threat: 10% chance, including possibility of EF2+ tornadoes

  • Damaging Winds: 30% chance

  • Large Hail: 15% chance

• Slight Risk Area: Extends south/east (including Birmingham and Chattanooga)

  • 5% chance of tornadoes

  • 15% chance of damaging winds and hail

• Timing: Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Central and Eastern Tennessee

🌤️ Coming Weather Pattern

• Wednesday-Thursday: Late season cool air moves in after system clears

  • Lows in the upper 40s in Tennessee

  • 50s possible almost to the coast

• Memorial Day Weekend: Weak stalled front may bring a few showers (not as clear as I had hoped)

• Next Week: Stronger weather system expected around mid-week

🔍 Notable Pattern

• The relatively high tornado threat in northwest Alabama tomorrow is unusual this far south this late in May

• Current pattern features a strong late season mid-latitude cyclone (our normal weather pattern for fall through spring)

Stay weather-aware during this active period, particularly Tuesday when tornado threats are elevated! ⚠️

🌪️ Previous Severe Weather Debrief

• Last week before last the coast was dealing with a stalled front and several days of severe weather

• Here is how each day panned out, including a few days where I wasn't expecting severe weather

May 7th

May 8th

May 9th

May 10th

May 11th

Stay safe. Have a good week and enjoy the holiday weekend.

Chris

Strong Storms Possible Tonight Through Sunday for Alabama and Tennessee

May 16, 2025

 ⚠️ Multiple rounds of severe weather are expected across Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee over the next three days, with the greatest threat occurring tonight into early Saturday morning. The region will experience progressively diminishing severe weather risks through the weekend, though severe thunderstorm chances will persist each day.

Day 1 (Friday Evening - Early Saturday Morning)

Alabama:

• Risk Level: Northern Alabama under Slight Risk, central Alabama under Marginal Risk

• Expected Hazards:
  🌪️ Tornado threat present in northern portions (2% risk)
  🧊 Significant hail threat with 15% risk in northern regions
  💨 Damaging wind risk of 15% across northern Alabama

• Timing: From approximately 10 PM tonight until early Saturday morning

Huntsville Area

Montgomery-Birmingham Area

Central to Eastern Tennessee:

• Risk Level: Central Tennessee Enhanced Risk, Eastern Tennessee under Slight Risk

• Expected Hazards:
  🌪️ More significant tornado potential in central areas (5-10%)
  🧊 Enhanced hail threat (15-30%) across central Tennessee
  💨 Damaging wind threat (15-30%) with potential gusts over 65 mph

• Timing: From approximately 10 PM tonight until early Saturday morning

Day 2 (Saturday Afternoon - Evening)

Most of Alabama Except Coastal Areas and Central Tennessee:

• Risk Level: Northern Alabama under Marginal Risk

• Expected Hazards:
  🌪️ Minimal tornado threat
  🧊 Limited hail threat (5%)
  💨 Wind threat present (5%)

• Timing: Saturday afternoon through evening

Day 3 (Sunday Afternoon - Evening)

Alabama, Again Excluding Coastal Areas, and Central Tennessee:

• Risk Level: Primarily Marginal Risk (light green) across the state

• Expected Hazards:
  ⛈️ General thunderstorm activity likely, with damaging winds possible

• Timing: Sunday afternoon through evening

⚠️ The greatest severe weather threat appears to be on Day 1 (tonight into early Saturday), particularly for Central Tennessee where the combination of tornado, hail, and wind threats is most significant.

Looking Ahead: The next weather system will move into the southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, with clearer weather likely for the end of the week and weekend.

Have a great weekend.

Chris