January 22, 2020
The summary for the coming week is that rain is moving in tomorrow with another chance Sunday for some of us. The rain tomorrow will bring a little warm air with near seasonable (cool) temps returning through the weekend and early next week.
A couple of interesting things have happened since my last outlook a week ago. One is that a lot of us got a bit more rain over the weekend than what was initially forecast, below are the rain totals from the 14th to 21st. It doesn't quite match the map I sent on the 15th...
The other thing is that the models completely flip-flopped on the duration of below average temps. Two days after my update on the 15th the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks changed to this (note these are no longer valid):
You might remember all of the blue in the east, well that's gone...I haven't had time to dig into why the sudden change, suffice to say the models performed poorly. I'm not going to bother showing you the current 6-10 or 8-14 day outlooks but you can see them on my blog here. Currently they're orange out to 14 days and blue into mid-February. I think most models support this but we'll see, I don't think they've been doing well out beyond 5-7 days recently.
Getting to our forecast for the next week, most of us have a good shot at seeing rain starting around tomorrow morning/mid-day as a warm front and then cold front moves in. It looks like rain will be out of the area sometime Friday afternoon. The northern areas have a shot at some snow as the cold front clears out, if so it wont be much. Temps will warm briefly tomorrow and Friday before dipping back down Friday night and through the weekend but it wont be as cold as it has been.
A coastal system may bring some rain to the coast, maybe even well up into Alabama, overnight Sunday into Monday. Temps look to be seasonable through mid-week. Late Tuesday or early Wednesday our next weather system will move in and we'll talk about that more as we get closer.
No significant severe weather is expected over the next week.
Let's talk tropical weather. Back before Christmas Colorado State published their first outlook for the 2020 hurricane season, you can read it here. Basically they're saying there's a 50/50 chance of an above/below average season, maybe leaning a bit towards the above average side, even though their report didn't really state that. There are many factors that influence the hurricane season and one of them is El Nino/La Nina or the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO is currently neutral, no El Nino or La Nina, and what it will do through hurricane season is unknown. To make matters worse, ENSO is notoriously difficult to predict during the spring so it may not be until the late spring or early summer before we have a better idea what the season may look like. Keeping in mind that the ENSO is only one piece of the puzzle, El Nino typically creates conditions that are hostile to tropical development whereas neutral or La Nina conditions can favor tropical development. Crown Weather sent out a very good subscriber only email on the subject this week. If you're interested I highly recommend you become a subscriber.
I hope you all have a good end of the week and a great weekend.
Chris
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