October 6, 2020
Hurricane Delta is now a strong category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. It is forecast to continue to strengthen to 155 mph in 12 hours, just shy of category 5 strength. The NHC's forecast only covers 12 hour intervals so it's possible Delta could be even stronger at landfall, this possibility is being hinted at by several models. Only 36 hours ago, Delta was a 35 mph tropical depression. That is a 110 mph increase in a day and a half! Rapid intensification like that is extremely rare with only 1 or 2 other storms in the last 50 years gaining that much strength in such a short period of time. The forecast continues to be one where Delta weakens some after making landfall in Mexico, followed by reintensification to category 4 strength, followed by some weakening before landfall in the US. I think we may not know exactly how the final weakening phase will play out until we start to see it happen, although models are in agreement that weakening should occur. The NHC is also reporting the wind field is expected to grow in size as it approaches the coast so even with weakening this will be a significant wind and storm surge event.
The track has shifted to the west slightly again. Now that landfall on the US is within about 72 hours, the forecast cone has narrowed considerably, and I think those of us in Florida can breathe easier. The spread on the track models is about the same as or narrower than the cone (depending on the model) so we can start to feel fairly confident that landfall will be somewhere along the central to central-western Louisiana coast late Friday or early Saturday.
There's not much else to report this evening. My heart goes out to the people in Mexico, a lot of you know what it's like to experience what they are about to go through. Delta will then come close to hitting where Laura made landfall earlier this year...
Have a good evening.
Chris
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