Tropical Weather Update - Sunday September 26th, 2021

September 26, 2021

The tropics remain busy but thankfully there are no imminent threats to land. Sam may be an issue for Bermuda next weekend but it doesn't look like it is a threat to land otherwise.

The yellow spot southeast of Bermuda is the remnants of Peter. If it does manage to develop it will be no threat to land. There are two more areas in the eastern Atlantic being watched for development. The western most yellow area is an existing wave that has a 30% chance of development over 5 days. The orange area is a wave that will move over the Atlantic on Monday and it has a 60% chance of development over 5 days. Right now models aren't developing either of these very much in the short term or if they do it is short-lived. In the longer term there are some signals that the first wave may try to develop in the southwestern Caribbean somewhere between the 5th and 8th of October and then come north. This far out I'd put the chances of this at 10-20% so just something to watch at this point.

The weather here in the southeast looks like it will remain nice through the end of the week with little chance of rain and temps about average for this time of year.

That's it for today, I'll send out another update towards the end of the week or over the weekend.

Have a great week!

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - September 20, 2021

September 20, 2021

Watching this tomorrow is obligatory (although fall starts on the 22nd this year): Earth, Wind & Fire - September

Now that we've got that out of the way, let's look at the weather. Speaking of fall, it has already started to cool down a bit and we should see this continue with the arrival of a cold front later this week. This will also clear out the remnants of Hurricane Nicholas we've been dealing with for a week or more so we should see dry weather towards the end of the week and through the weekend, with perhaps some rain returning to the coast on Sunday.

The tropics are busy as usual but no immediate threats. Tropical Storms Peter and Rose, or "Pete Rose" as they have been dubbed, complete with a picture of the infamous player superimposed on the outlook map, are fish storms. The yellow spot way up north is the remnants of Odette trying to make a run at reforming, but otherwise it will not be a threat to North America. The red area near Africa is Invest 98L, a tropical wave that has a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves west. It could be a threat to the Lesser Antilles early next week and maybe the East Coast later on, but right now the probability of it being a threat to the Gulf looks low. All the same it is something to watch. Also looking at next week we may have to watch for something developing in the Caribbean or Gulf but right now the signal for this is weak.

That's it for today. I'll keep watching 98L and the rest of the tropics and I'll send out the next update by next weekend.

Have a great week.

Chris

The Tropics are Staying Busy but no Concerns at this Time

September 14, 2021

Forecasting is hard...I really thought Nicholas had a chance of going a bit more to the east... The tropics are staying busy but there are no immediate concerns for the Gulf Coast now that Nicholas has made landfall. That's the main thing I have to say today so if you want to stop here you're good.

High rainfall amounts will continue to be a concern from Nicholas but the bulk of that looks to stay to our west. Total rain through Sunday morning is below.

Looking at the tropics the other main areas of interest are still present. There's still a medium chance the East Coast could see a storm of some kind later this week but I don't think there will be major impacts. 

The main thing to watch is the tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L just off the African coast. Short term chances for development are high but the long term forecast is uncertain. Environmental conditions may be such that the storm either never gets fully going or falls apart later in the week if it does develop a bit. You can see this reflected in the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble plots below, notice most of the colors are cool, meaning lower intensity. Notice also that the warmer, stronger tracks show the storm going more to the north. I think it is a low chance at this point for this to be a threat to the Gulf but the islands and the East Coast need to pay attention. It may be something to watch a week from now if it does develop and stays to the south.

ECMWF Ensemble

GEFS Ensemble

Other Spaghetti Models

That's about it for today. On Friday another wave will come off the African coast but I don't think it will be a threat at this time. We are in the time of year when things can pop up suddenly that aren't showing in the models so keep that in mind. Even though we're looking pretty good right now I'd expect to see a few more areas of interest show up on the 5-Day Outlook over the next few weeks.

Have a good week.

Chris

Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in the Gulf

September 12, 2021

Well that didn't take long...official forecast below. 

A hurricane hunter recently found conditions supporting tropical storm strength. Here's what the NHC has to say regarding intensity:

The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas.  The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus,
and the HWRF.  In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system.  A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment
and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen.  Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner.

My previous thoughts still apply, we'll see what happens.

Chris

Storm Likely to Form in the Western Gulf Soon

September 12, 2021

There's a lot going on in the tropics this morning but I'm going to spend most of my time talking about Invest 94L in the Bay of Campeche. You can see there are several other areas that need to be watched, with the area near the Bahamas and the wave coming off of Africa being potential threats to the East Coast and Lesser Antilles (and points westward later) respectively.

Invest 94L has a 90% chance of development and is expected to become a tropical depression within 24 hours. You can see a selection of model tracks below. I could show you many more but they all show the same trend. The majority of the intensity models show a tropical storm at the strongest. The middle of the road guidance is for a tropical storm to impact the middle to upper Texas coast on Tuesday. This will likely be an east-weighted storm so rain impacts will extend well into Louisiana and perhaps MS and AL. With that being said there are some caveats to the forecast. Levi Cowan mentioned in his Tropical Tidbits video yesterday that a weaker storm will go more to the north-northwest and a stronger storm will go more to the north-northeast. From what I'm seeing this morning I'm leaning towards the stronger solutions. And even though most intensity models don 't strengthen this very much, I think they may be a bit biased on the low end. For one thing, a low level center has yet to form and until this does models are just sort of guessing when and where that will happen. Second, the 06Z run of the GFS run keeps the storm offshore until the western LA coast. It strengthens the storm to near hurricane strength offshore, which feels more steering flow to the northeast, and brings in ashore in western LA as a tropical storm. This is one solution but I'm leaning more towards this scenario. 94L won't have a long time thankfully but in the short term conditions are favorable for development and strengthening, we've all seen how fast these can spin up. On Monday and Tuesday the storm will start to be influenced by wind shear again which is why the models are limiting intensification. However, if it manages to intensify a bit and starts moving towards the north-northeast it will be moving with the shear somewhat. Due to this the relative shear over the storm will be a little lower. Combining this with a longer track over water leads me to think we could see a stronger storm than what is being shown now. I'm not seeing anything that suggests a really strong storm, but I think a hurricane impacting the Louisiana coast is certainly possible. Once a center forms we will know more and hopefully we'll get a few hurricane hunter flights in there which will help the models as well.

I've said a lot, mainly it helps me consolidate my thoughts to write them down. I don't think this will be a major wind or storm surge event, and it looks to stay to the west of most of us, but I think this has the potential to sneak up on people.

That is it for today, we'll see how things evolve over the next day or so. Once this thing in the Gulf moves on later in the week we'll take a look at the rest of the tropics again.

Have a great Sunday.

Chris

 

Tropics Staying Busy...

September 10, 2021

Happy climatological peak of hurricane season day! And right on cue, there are several areas to watch. The main thing I'm going to discuss today is the area of interest shown in the western Caribbean below. The NHC gives this area a 40% chance of development over two days and a 70% chance over 5 days, I expect we'll see it become an invest soon.

The NHC expects a tropical depression to form late this weekend or early next week with the storm then making landfall in the western Gulf of Mexico. What we need to watch is for this to curve out over the Gulf similar to what the system that eventually became Mindy did. Models aren't showing much development but one GEFS member curves the storm around and brings it into Louisiana as a hurricane next Wednesday. That is 1 out of 31 members, which could very easily be an outlier, but because this follows a similar pattern as the last system it has me curious as it often seems like the atmosphere has a memory of sorts with successive storms following the same pattern. To be clear I'm not forecasting this to happen but it's something to watch for. It may not come that far east but I think the upper Texas coast should be watching for sure.

Next on the horizon is another area to watch in the Caribbean mid-week, not a strong signal at this point but something to watch for. Around the same time another strong wave will come off of Africa that may stay south long enough to cause trouble to the US or at least the islands about 10 days from now. The eastern wave (red area off Africa) marked on the current outlook will probably curve out to sea but it's something to keep an eye on as well.

Nothing imminent thankfully but several areas to keep an eye on, this is normal for this time of year especially given the seasonal forecasts calling for an above average season.

Have a good weekend.

Chris

Quick Tropical Update - No Development Expected from (sic) System in the Gulf

September 7, 2021

I hope everyone had a great Labor Day weekend! The area of interest in the Caribbean we looked at last week that was supposed to go to Mexico has been pulled up into the Gulf by a cold front that passed through. Designated Invest 91L, the NHC gives this area a 30% chance of development over the next 2 days and 40% over 5 days. It is unlikely that this will develop much in the Gulf although it has a slightly better chance when it crosses into the Atlantic in a few days. What it will do is bring us some rain, maybe some tropical depression (or possibly tropical storm) conditions, which will be followed by rain from another front moving through. Nothing too concerning at this time.

In the longer term we may see another area of interest pop up in the Caribbean later this week or weekend but the signal isn't a very strong one at this time.

That's it for now, I'll have a more in depth update later this week or weekend, with perhaps an update if 91L develops a little.

Chris

Quick Look at the Tropics - Enjoy the Long Weekend!

September 2, 2021

I'm going to try to unplug for a few days starting this evening so I wanted to send out a quick update. The NHC 5-Day Outlook is below and while there are a few areas to watch (and one storm) there are no short-term threats to land. Larry is not a concern right now other than maybe being a threat to Bermuda at some point a week from now. Second, there is a low pressure system in the Caribbean that has a 20% chance of development but it is really not expected at this time. We may see a tropical depression try to form and head into Mexico but that looks to be about it. Third, the yellow spot to the east of Larry may try to develop but it is expected to run into unfavorable conditions in a few days. There's nothing of immediate concern in the longer term, we can take a look at that after the holiday.

With that have a great Labor Day weekend! We just had a front move through so the weather should be pretty nice!

Chris