Invest 94L Designated in the Atlantic

June 24, 2022

Synopsis: it looks more likely than not that there will be a tropical system developing in the Western Atlantic or Eastern Caribbean sometime in the next 3-7 days. Right now a threat to the US looks fairly unlikely but we'll need to keep watching how this system progresses.

The tropical wave that I mentioned last time is now looking like it has a good chance for development. Designated Invest 94L, the latest 5-Day Outlook from the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 60% chance of development.

The two questions we of course want to know are where it is going to go and how strong it will get. The near-term future of the system is fairly certain. Development will be slow over the next five days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles but I think it will be a tropical depression by then if not a low end tropical storm. Once it enters the Caribbean the uncertainty increases a bit for a variety of reasons (the main one being a drop in forecast skill after five days). The majority of models keep the storm relatively weak and on a track towards Central America but you'll notice that there are a few ensemble solutions that bring a stronger storm a bit more north. I think what's going on there is that the few stronger solutions are feeling a little bit of a different steering influence and get pulled more north where the weaker solutions don't feel this northerly tug. It should be noted that intensity forecasts tend to be more uncertain than track forecasts and there are some other models showing a stronger after five days. Conditions in the Caribbean look like they may be moderately favorable for strengthening so we'll have to wait and see. That being said I don't think we're looking at a threat to the US at this time. We also have quite a few days to watch this, it won't be in the Western Caribbean for another week or more.

European Model Ensemble Members

GFS (US) Model Ensemble Members

Spaghetti Model Tracks

That's it for today. We'll know a lot more in five to seven days or so but I'll give you another update on Monday or Tuesday.

Rain chances will pick up a little in the Southeast through the weekend followed by a return to close to "normal" temperatures so hopefully the weather won't be as hot or dry.

Have a good weekend.

Chris