Update on the Tropics - Development Unlikely Through the end of the Month

June 17, 2022

Synopsis: the area in the western Caribbean will likely not develop, there may be a few things to watch for around the end of the month but currently there are no strong signals for development. Keep in mind we are still in the part of the season when development can occur that models don't predict way ahead of time but the expected weather pattern isn't showing much to be concerned about.

There's not much going on in the tropics today. Invest 93L, which is the area in the western Carribean I mentioned last time, is most likely not going to develop. There was a day or so when chances for development were up to 40% but that was short lived. Around mid week the low pressure system moved ashore in Central America which probably ended its chances for development. It's still listed as having a 10% chance of development over 5 days but it really doesn't look like much will happen. As it is it was not a threat to the central or eastern Gulf Coast.

Looking long term, the GFS is showing development again in the western Caribbean late next weekend or early the last week of June. The GFS has been consistently forecasting phantom storms this season at roughly the 10 day lead time and given the lack of strong support in the other models (which show Eastern Pacific development instead) I'd say this is likely the case here. All the same it is something to watch. The other thing to watch will be a tropical wave that will push off the African coast Sunday or Monday. It's still a bit early to see African Easterly Wave (AEW) development but a few members of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles are showing development as the wave approaches the eastern Caribbean around the end of the month. Wind shear looks like it will be a bit strong for development so at this point I'm skeptical. Again something to watch but nothing concerning.

That's it for today. You don't need me to tell you but hot weather is the main story for all of us. Right now we may not see a break from the heat until the week after next when we may see a return to normal temps (i.e. a few degrees less hot, I hesitate to say cooler). There's also not much rain in the forecast until the middle of the last week of June.

Stay cool and be careful if you're out in the heat.

Chris