Two Areas to Watch in the Tropics

August 28, 2022

Activity is picking up in the tropics and there are a few areas I want to update you on this morning. Below is the 5-Day Outlook from the National Hurricane Center and you'll see that they're watching four different areas. Today we're only going to talk about two of them for the most part.

First up is the area in the western Caribbean which the NHC gives a 20% chance of development. The short story is that I don't think this is going to bother us in the northern Gulf, that is if it develops at all. The operational GFS model has been consistent in developing this system but for the most part it stands alone in doing so. The GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows a fairly strong signal for development as well but the Euro and Canadian operational and ensemble models show little to none. As it is, it looks almost non-existent on satellite and I think the only reason the NHC continues to highlight it is the time of year and the continued support from the GFS. For what it's worth the GFS takes this system into the Texas/Mexico border area so even if it does manage to develop I don't think it's a concern for us.

Next is the red area in the central tropics. Designated Invest 91L, this low pressure area associated with a tropical wave has a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days. With that forecast I'd say there's a good chance we'll see this develop at some point later this week. You can see the spaghetti models below. Based on these I am hopeful it will stay out of the Gulf but it is a bit too early to say that. I think the longer it goes without developing the farther west it may come without starting to curve north. It's something to watch but nothing to be concerned about at this point.

Tropical Cyclone Spaghetti Models

GFS Ensemble

European Ensemble

There's another tropical wave being watched way out east but it's too early to spend a lot of time on it. The NHC gives this area a 20% chance of development over 5 days. It looks like this may curve into the Atlantic if it develops but we'll start watching it closer once these other areas are out of the picture.

So again a few areas to watch but I think there is a fairly low chance they will bother us much. I'm more interested in what happens with the low pressure approaching the Lesser Antilles so we need to wait and see how it evolves this week.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend and have a good week.

Chris

Tropical Wave Being Watched for Development in the Caribbean

August 23, 2022

I was going to wait another day or two for my next update but I wanted to get one out this afternoon in case you see a scary looking model run on social media. There are three areas on the 5-Day Outlook but I'm mainly going to focus on the yellow area in the eastern Caribbean. 

This area is a tropical wave that was just pushing off the coast of Africa when I wrote my update last Wednesday. For the record I stated that I didn't think this would develop into something that would be an issue for the Gulf Coast based on models at the time. That may end up being incorrect but we'll have to wait and see. Currently this wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles and has been given a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days. Models haven't been really bullish on development until today. They're still not bullish as a whole, but the GFS run from this morning develops this wave and brings it towards the northern Gulf Coast around the end of next week as a pretty strong storm. Images from this solution are what you may see floating around the internet, don't let them be a concern. While this is a bit of an interesting model forecast, there isn't a ton of support from other models. Even the GFS ensemble (which is 31 different runs of more or less the same model) doesn't strongly support the operational model. I'd think if the operational model was catching on to something we'd see a good bit of ensemble support. Also, the latest runs of the Euro and Canadian model do not develop this system at all, but there is some support from their ensembles. So other than one scary looking run there isn't a strong signal yet that this is going to be a problem.

The other areas farther east are two more waves that need to be watched. I won't go into the details because frankly it's a bit frustrating watching what the models have been doing with these from run to run, something that has been a trend this season. Just know that there are some other areas to watch that won't be a concern, if at all, for well over a week.

That's it for today. We'll know more about this system in the Caribbean later this week.

Have a good week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

August 17, 2022

There's nothing to be concerned about right now but activity in the tropics looks like it is going to start picking up so I figured it was a good time for an update. First of all, the thing in the Caribbean shown below on the NHC's 5-Day Outlook is nothing to be concerned about unless you're in Mexico or south Texas. Even then it is likely to be a rainmaker at most. There was another yellow spot in the Gulf last week that I didn't bother you about because it was never expected to do much and that is indeed what happened (or didn't).

Looking out a week or two there are no big concerns but there are some signals that the tropics are starting to wake up. If you see posts on social media showing multiple storms in the Gulf and Atlantic you can ignore them as it's too far out to forecast anything that specific. What it does tell us is that models are starting to pick up on the potential for development.

The first chance for development may come as early as next Tuesday or Wednesday. Both the GFS (US) and Canadian operational models show development in the western Caribbean of a tropical wave that is currently approaching the Lesser Antilles. The Euro shows no development of this wave at all and neither do the GFS ensembles (which is interesting given that the operational GFS does). For what it's worth a few members of the Canadian and European ensembles show development but not enough to say that there's a strong signal. Overall it looks like a low chance that this wave develops but given that it would be in close proximity to the Gulf with a potential to track to the north or northwest it's something to watch.

Next up to watch is a wave that is just pushing off the coast of Africa. The GFS and GFS ensembles show the possibility of development with this wave around next weekend about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Africa. The Euro doesn't develop this wave at all but there is a subtle signal for development in the Euro ensembles. It's way to early to say what areas may be at risk were this to develop. Another thing to watch but not a concern for now. From what I'm seeing I don't think this would bother the Gulf but that's not certain.

Two more waves will push off of Africa next Wednesday or Thursday and then another the last few days of the month. There are signals for both of these to develop (depending on the model) but this is too far out to talk about. Taking this all together the main point is that there is a good chance we'll start to see activity in the tropics in the next two weeks and with the climatological peak of the season approaching I'd expect this to continue at least until mid September if not longer.

That's it for this evening, I'll let you know next time there's something important to watch. You're hurricane kit and plan should be already in good shape but if you've been slacking now's a good time to get it together.

Have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Quick Tropical Weather Update - GOM Looks Fine, Maybe an East Coast Threat

August 8, 2022

Just a quick Monday morning update on the tropics. On Saturday the NHC started watching a tropical wave way out in the east Atlantic. Currently, they give this wave a 40% chance of development over the next five days. Development is not a sure thing at this point but right now it doesn't look like this will be any threat to the Gulf. It looks like this system will stay north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles but it may eventually be a threat to the northern Bahamas and then the East Coast. Even so, it'll be about a week and a half to two weeks before this is a concern.

That's it for today, I just wanted you to know this was out there, nothing to be concerned about for us along the Gulf but something to watch for folks on the East Coast.

Have a great week.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update

August 1, 2022

There's really not much going on in the tropics but since it's been a few weeks I thought I'd send an update. The 5-Day Outlook from the NHC pretty much says it all. A few weeks ago it looked like activity was going to pick up around the end of July but that just hasn't happened. It's not unusual for there to be a lull in July but it's atypical to go as long as we have since the last named storm. There have been some healthy tropical waves coming off of Africa but the environment ahead of them in the Atlantic has been hostile for development. 

Right now it looks like we'll remain in this reduced activity state for at least ten more days, although there is a small signal that we may see something in the Caribbean in the 7-10 day timeframe. Looking beyond 10 days there isn't much of a signal for development either although sooner or later this is expected to change. The climatological peak of hurricane season is about six weeks away. I haven't seen any changes to the earlier forecasts for this season so I'd expect to see a ramp up in activity in 3-4 weeks at the latest.

That's it for today. I'll send another update if something pops up or if the longer range signals start showing something interesting.

Have a good week.

Chris